{"id":"W4214693701","doi":"10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022","title":"Long-range prediction and the stratosphere","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Atmospheric chemistry and physics","topic":"Atmospheric Ozone and Climate","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":83,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Biological and Environmental Research; Sight Research UK; National Science Foundation; Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government; Natural Environment Research Council; National Research Foundation of Korea; Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung; H2020 European Research Council; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government","keywords":"Stratosphere; Climatology; Troposphere; Environmental science; Range (aeronautics); Atmospheric sciences; Climate model; Meteorology; Climate change; Geology; Geography; Engineering; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001508161,0.0001272573,0.0001414609,2.346545e-8,0.0005767728,0.00005361871,0.0001154211,0.00002929233,0.007653841],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000004230777,0.00009329457,0.000040037,0.0001557248,0.0002140283,0.0001021786,0.00003168196,0.0002098299,0.000009875825],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000003842786,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002435438,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004286683,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001581234,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992422,0.00004380689,0.0001264771,0.000222034,0.00018354,0.0001819182],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996172,0.00008754431,0.00005762749,0.0001565295,0.00001106292,0.00007007161],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002815322,0.00004203513,0.473406,0.0000967662,0.00008118291,0.0000189009,0.0008636013,0.00615636,0.00003422411,0.0002030379,0.00102427,0.5177921],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.005241707,0.0002720687,0.450976,0.00002226661,0.0002685473,0.0003675043,0.005734203,0.4858664,0.0001373056,0.0111054,0.03914674,0.0008618676],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9772342,0.002615945,0.0002455984,0.0001934201,0.00007239028,0.0001169213,0.00006392468,0.00004425795,0.01941337],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9957837,0.0004088111,0.0005871701,0.0002518134,0.0001789278,0.000008467075,0.00006020893,0.000004952072,0.002715892],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5169303,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9932533,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.005365573659315602,"score_gpt":0.1768104566495415,"score_spread":0.1714448829902259,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}