{"id":"W4220767831","doi":"10.1002/hpm.3459","title":"Tropicalisation of epidemiological models in Africa: A mixed and hybrid approach to better predict COVID‐19 indicators","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The International Journal of Health Planning and Management","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa","funders":"International Development Research Centre; Styrelsen för Internationellt Utvecklingssamarbete","keywords":"Context (archaeology); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Pandemic; Baseline (sea); Outbreak; Epidemiology; Geography; Process (computing); Demography; Econometrics; Operations research; Computer science; Political science; Medicine; Mathematics; Sociology; Virology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003042106,0.001120081,0.0009784475,0.001129464,0.0004962989,0.0022004,0.001433784,0.001224116,0.002310107],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009144551,0.0008518906,0.0016574,0.0005628926,0.0005831504,0.001927517,0.002261734,0.001355076,0.0002159589],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001153835,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001185623,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01433252,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01148518,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986914,0.0009367723,0.00006355166,0.0001596683,0.00005612925,0.00009258043],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9946332,0.004353291,0.0004061383,0.0001386164,0.0003043643,0.0001644697],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007457189,0.00004762652,0.006077689,0.0000634408,0.000167885,0.0001268765,0.0002254474,0.9760055,0.0002748952,0.006228921,0.0002024342,0.01050472],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000005631187,0.00002776334,0.0004431084,0.00001152923,0.00001493627,0.00001117288,0.00005482727,0.9966738,0.00005121324,0.002513088,0.0001862049,0.000006752709],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.3324127,0.001038549,0.657886,0.001866427,0.00009554216,0.0001922218,0.0004508496,0.0004511646,0.00560649],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8991658,0.0003810542,0.09769962,0.0001714067,0.00007047583,0.0002277397,0.0002718567,0.00007054146,0.001941486],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01433252,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02849823,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3285314130497464,"score_gpt":0.429514026171197,"score_spread":0.1009826131214506,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}