{"id":"W4220821159","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1507","title":"Predictable Patterns of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere and Their Predictability Sources in the SEAS5","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Northern British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Empirical orthogonal functions; Northern Hemisphere; Predictability; Environmental science; Forcing (mathematics); Middle latitudes; Plateau (mathematics); Arctic; Atmospheric sciences; Oceanography; Geology; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002856639,0.0002164512,0.0001127286,0.0009407059,0.0002568707,0.0005873716,0.00009706809,0.00008978656,0.001304285],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000917598,0.0001398649,0.0003581253,0.001079545,0.0001760854,0.0003830969,0.0004181239,0.0001460488,0.000174309],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003830045,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000359344,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01347315,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0230684,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999889,0.0000189346,0.00001197354,0.0000286929,0.00002984346,0.0000216387],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995741,0.00009372502,0.0001598069,0.00003196009,0.0001008501,0.00003955449],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000121502,0.00001762272,0.9695329,0.00002706712,0.0001123803,0.0002671508,0.0005115336,0.003459231,0.006464951,0.0008760272,0.0005860432,0.01802354],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002109802,0.000006562023,0.997207,0.000003432817,0.00001460325,0.00002959754,0.00009399489,0.001938871,0.0002312008,0.0001706531,0.0002971352,0.000004790739],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9962907,0.0001917479,0.0005991972,0.00004887402,0.000006634735,0.000003141583,0.0005826005,0.00001687292,0.002260082],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.999011,0.00006997471,0.0001836688,0.000003851616,0.00001140777,0.000002049718,0.0004306298,0.000006411385,0.0002808858],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01347315,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02678949,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.009456274228219746,"score_gpt":0.2089377111074422,"score_spread":0.1994814368792224,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}