{"id":"W4220876624","doi":"10.1002/gsj.1437","title":"The importance of rare events and other outliers in global strategy research","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Global Strategy Journal","topic":"Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":55,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Framing (construction); Salience (neuroscience); Preparedness; Outlier; Qualitative comparative analysis; Positive economics; Sociology; Psychology; Social psychology; Epistemology; Political science; Computer science; Cognitive psychology; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002194457,0.0001471295,0.0001725123,0.0000971975,0.0009341031,0.0003499137,0.0006353419,0.00003897399,0.0003198566],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004859361,0.0001061724,0.00006776159,0.00106666,0.0001645005,0.0003951499,0.0004149639,0.0004259637,0.00001253916],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002437334,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001203221,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001227097,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001409674,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977062,0.000107165,0.0004456164,0.0002465595,0.0009180533,0.0005763494],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993619,0.00003137384,0.0002609719,0.0001945263,0.0001187881,0.00003240655],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001695912,0.0001013087,0.9191704,0.00002660201,0.00003951187,0.000131088,0.00002431095,0.004028208,0.000004204487,0.04782937,0.008558884,0.01991652],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001869002,0.0001636251,0.7025142,0.00005152509,0.00003034434,0.0001269252,0.03222413,0.001654936,0.000001556844,0.1790397,0.08199216,0.000331905],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9595178,0.001837096,0.00001495394,0.001045739,0.0002973659,0.0002894746,0.00002181902,0.00001401568,0.03696171],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990705,0.0001259362,0.000009915907,0.0003537246,0.0002367082,0.00001675253,0.000002657721,0.000008006074,0.0001757944],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2166562,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.718446,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04064106344630268,"score_gpt":0.3257044758759464,"score_spread":0.2850634124296437,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}