{"id":"W4221029418","doi":"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.02.004","title":"Analysing differences between scenarios","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Forecasting","topic":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Victoria","funders":"Robertson Foundation; Institute for New Economic Thinking","keywords":"Econometrics; Sample (material); Covariate; Sample size determination; Variable (mathematics); Computer science; Statistics; Economics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003994682,0.00007636729,0.0002188453,0.0008051605,0.0002546606,0.0002674345,0.001117492,0.00001777359,0.0004561689],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001683684,0.00005869325,0.0002236242,0.0005063465,0.00003263908,0.0003416594,0.0001835994,0.0002820777,0.000005544483],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007266206,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007491088,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002086169,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000003940112,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9956386,0.0001878193,0.00100841,0.0001520502,0.002884528,0.0001286082],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9966905,0.0009821142,0.001202371,0.0001033113,0.0009547994,0.00006690063],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008229783,0.00006181937,0.4557324,0.000001028106,0.0002340198,0.0001084436,0.001656776,0.08568673,0.0002495649,0.0004465753,0.0007215854,0.4550187],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001812588,0.0006316451,0.1342809,0.0001298473,0.0001723673,0.001321576,0.01623677,0.7045109,0.0001591287,0.1283955,0.01187095,0.0004777909],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9547157,0.00008222742,0.04169567,0.001057373,0.001216084,0.00002227326,0.00001405055,0.00000764775,0.001188976],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969539,0.000004734376,0.002397581,0.00009506287,0.0004081806,0.000001066254,0.000003369945,0.000005635083,0.0001304693],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6188242,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4994729,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2837804020029268,"score_gpt":0.3990886874996576,"score_spread":0.1153082854967308,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}