{"id":"W4221149490","doi":"10.1007/s11538-022-01047-x","title":"From Policy to Prediction: Forecasting COVID-19 Dynamics Under Imperfect Vaccination","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":25,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Brock University; University of Alberta","funders":"Division of Mathematical Sciences; National Institute for Materials Science; Alberta Innovates; Pfizer; University of Tennessee at Chattanooga; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Canada Research Chairs","keywords":"Ode; Public health interventions; Psychological intervention; Econometrics; Ordinary differential equation; Public health; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Vaccination; Computer science; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Mathematics; Medicine; Disease; Differential equation; Virology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006120414,0.0007493711,0.001426026,0.0007840456,0.0003973636,0.002463827,0.001146467,0.002623867,0.003747088],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0414884,0.000730979,0.0005435246,0.0008009464,0.001304499,0.003775786,0.001108967,0.003702946,0.0003649617],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002430797,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001506939,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02377865,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01160024,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988989,0.0006159577,0.00004361926,0.0001990514,0.00006529954,0.0001773198],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9740108,0.0224442,0.00188402,0.0005058964,0.00062507,0.0005300063],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000203641,0.00006601043,0.0138643,0.00006614365,0.00005997298,0.00007721502,0.00009616999,0.9427035,0.000138433,0.03131027,0.003193257,0.008221045],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001501883,0.00002349743,0.001474688,0.00001355946,0.000009752375,0.000008811267,0.00004664624,0.9674717,0.00006419507,0.03065823,0.0002034339,0.00001059014],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8542276,0.001707653,0.1081008,0.02439976,0.0004043365,0.00008258259,0.002214564,0.0002693182,0.008593363],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9957712,0.0003469168,0.001868112,0.0001980879,0.00006878638,0.00001796403,0.0002216941,0.00001330874,0.001493876],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02377865,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04728049,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1766714526779521,"score_gpt":0.411041488663017,"score_spread":0.234370035985065,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}