{"id":"W4224288877","doi":"10.2118/209261-ms","title":"Time Series Analysis as an Alternative for Decline Curve Analysis in Unconventional Plays","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SPE Western Regional Meeting","topic":"Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods","field":"Engineering","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"","keywords":"Exponential smoothing; Autoregressive integrated moving average; Computer science; Univariate; Time series; Series (stratigraphy); Scale (ratio); Field (mathematics); Moving average; Autoregressive model; Flexibility (engineering); Econometrics; Multivariate statistics; Data mining; Machine learning; Statistics; Mathematics; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000979786,0.0001885367,0.000403275,0.000889965,0.0001290966,0.00004968401,0.0002646037,0.0000465554,0.0002400774],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00007429701,0.0002163461,0.0003271367,0.001635021,0.00002667168,0.0002154906,0.00008532875,0.0001939703,0.000008376209],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001495864,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002176226,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001142084,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002340661,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983963,0.0001645001,0.0004259041,0.0003213103,0.000419759,0.0002722075],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991769,0.0003492105,0.0000863947,0.0002265154,0.00007031204,0.00009071713],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005373978,0.00002667478,0.04401343,0.00001740297,0.001043832,0.000008848597,0.0003090786,0.9539959,0.0001598107,0.0002541582,0.00002029124,0.00009678806],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004882464,0.00006444108,0.01484462,0.00000953417,0.0003765614,0.000004879987,0.0001834132,0.9803087,0.0001388707,0.001379292,0.001949987,0.0002514518],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9166547,0.000120248,0.08216175,0.0002115932,0.000122332,0.0001650173,0.00007825651,0.0001448215,0.0003412497],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9766978,0.00001176571,0.02118875,0.00006063301,0.0001896681,0.0001215981,0.0007314547,0.00004465587,0.000953656],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.060973,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8822339,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02800914402934329,"score_gpt":0.3089036325057635,"score_spread":0.2808944884764202,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}