{"id":"W4226037383","doi":"10.5334/sta.857","title":"Reflections on the Evolution of Conflict Early Warning","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Stability International Journal of Security and Development","topic":"Political Conflict and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Warning system; Operationalization; Salience (neuroscience); Political science; Politics; Early warning system; Endogeneity; Psychology; Public relations; Computer science; Cognitive psychology; Epistemology; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001544405,0.00004391597,0.00008437912,0.0000549847,0.0004273361,0.00002617183,0.0002459248,0.00001892228,0.0003404103],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004758348,0.00003479418,0.00004094687,0.0000853806,0.000176605,0.0001010362,0.00007664415,0.0002483508,0.000001182032],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005795058,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005471813,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008757084,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002228164,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985736,0.0001990367,0.0002870378,0.00006640126,0.0007701762,0.0001037618],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990676,0.0002867815,0.0002221978,0.00004480888,0.0003232888,0.00005532955],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000286873,0.0003146957,0.0261076,0.000007980904,0.0001333959,0.000005562727,0.397661,0.00002075848,0.0002791618,0.57323,0.0001201345,0.001832858],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007449939,0.0003635168,0.1469961,0.00006091557,0.00001530257,0.00001811144,0.1810195,0.00001995017,0.001659113,0.03125634,0.6376438,0.0002022883],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9826345,0.00009608332,0.0001332108,0.00423485,0.0003772998,0.0000639063,0.00001499752,0.000004238599,0.0124409],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995873,0.00002553456,0.00007973026,0.0001764887,0.00008178406,0.000004010608,5.647532e-7,0.000001620951,0.00004296963],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6375237,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3727254,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06976904497509992,"score_gpt":0.3626417254984934,"score_spread":0.2928726805233935,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}