{"id":"W4229959201","doi":"10.1002/jae.2874","title":"Contagious switching","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Spillover effect; Vector autoregression; Business cycle; Economics; Recession; Econometrics; Free trade agreement; Liberalization; Free trade; International economics; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002055458,0.0004463405,0.001064843,0.001202403,0.0006686163,0.001658319,0.001119797,0.001100206,0.01220744],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009210344,0.0003467678,0.001387382,0.001087024,0.001311334,0.002141437,0.001087426,0.001914357,0.0006122645],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001155628,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006486492,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02128608,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0112344,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990459,0.0003005637,0.00004336246,0.0002717527,0.0001481466,0.0001902022],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9935524,0.003662182,0.001372973,0.0005966145,0.0005211556,0.0002946466],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002054448,0.0001629076,0.04435902,0.0001439586,0.0006938549,0.0009535144,0.0006237466,0.6560661,0.001859187,0.2586846,0.005834554,0.03041323],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003336031,0.00006137438,0.009168248,0.00003028394,0.00009186627,0.00008496232,0.0001304726,0.8791796,0.0002367379,0.1091599,0.001782641,0.00004060195],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6725703,0.001173807,0.2968407,0.003976605,0.000233051,0.000108456,0.001291453,0.00063584,0.02316973],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9912989,0.0002881317,0.002656396,0.000114234,0.00006116563,0.00003815366,0.0002958275,0.00002734401,0.005219863],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02128608,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04232436,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1227934244045128,"score_gpt":0.2179285120193868,"score_spread":0.095135087614874,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}