{"id":"W4231309619","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3690887","title":"Disastrous Defaults","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Insurance and Financial Risk Management","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations; University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Default; Business; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006315536,0.0001195464,0.0002350812,0.00006636827,0.0001530497,0.00006171715,0.0002804534,0.00004783129,0.00006320916],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00007439833,0.0001306553,0.0001369138,0.0001997658,0.00002277701,0.0002063756,0.00003918838,0.0008819574,0.001383721],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003082843,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001364414,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00006264642,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00007851082,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978393,0.000008516157,0.000398608,0.0002289112,0.00004411324,0.001480508],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995452,0.000007263973,0.0002248148,0.0001137513,0.00001820363,0.00009073095],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003286393,0.00002721955,0.01603962,0.000004287376,0.00005653415,0.000005560315,0.0002697528,0.00005182199,0.000003209449,0.9636369,0.000472688,0.0193995],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00102079,0.0004597349,0.007164323,0.00000607618,0.000009341895,0.00004215192,0.0007464787,0.00054691,0.000007635537,0.8231503,0.1665291,0.000317137],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5898457,0.01918307,0.3090617,0.01537747,0.001001559,0.0003561688,0.00004582282,0.0001296509,0.06499884],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9929817,0.004537836,0.0001222216,0.0009382081,0.0005326638,0.000004111857,0.00000263543,0.00002139503,0.00085924],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.403136,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9993938,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01576543036600768,"score_gpt":0.1978020420770132,"score_spread":0.1820366117110055,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}