{"id":"W4238061370","doi":"10.31230/osf.io/zshkp","title":"In some situations, simpler models can produce better forecasts","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Kelp; Kelp forest; Big data; Computer science; Meteorology; Econometrics; Geography; Ecology; Mathematics; Data mining; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005675825,0.002716826,0.002240386,0.001205391,0.00125296,0.004190695,0.001834508,0.003688983,0.01770541],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03854496,0.001108083,0.002181882,0.001453992,0.001639812,0.008187766,0.002595358,0.005666465,0.005487026],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00145014,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001119386,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01103026,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0145585,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9978416,0.0008635454,0.0001864853,0.0003986745,0.0004442461,0.0002653071],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9806028,0.01097216,0.001216587,0.00538495,0.001321941,0.0005015318],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006332773,0.0003780186,0.00883742,0.001431391,0.0007572022,0.0008067323,0.0009475207,0.7249796,0.006195705,0.1162508,0.04959701,0.0891853],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001301916,0.0001398602,0.002112722,0.0001936732,0.0002349529,0.0001799399,0.0003722539,0.6840115,0.004959054,0.2524251,0.05505443,0.000186328],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1305057,0.003403074,0.775358,0.02038839,0.003428236,0.0002824642,0.005276884,0.006523871,0.0548334],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6016204,0.002301962,0.3667648,0.004221019,0.001172575,0.0002447923,0.004576894,0.003064433,0.01603323],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01770541,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05923051,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04749184258606044,"score_gpt":0.3173982235553556,"score_spread":0.2699063809692951,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}