{"id":"W4238061370","doi":"10.31230/osf.io/zshkp","title":"In some situations, simpler models can produce better forecasts","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Kelp; Kelp forest; Big data; Computer science; Meteorology; Econometrics; Geography; Ecology; Mathematics; Data mining; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001608325,0.0002238676,0.0002066166,0.0002050345,0.00008081456,0.000131656,0.001158829,0.0001404571,0.0000168571],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001088561,0.0002175347,0.00006967864,0.0002666632,0.00004208419,0.0005461727,0.001446012,0.0003172742,0.00003113818],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001286753,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001832765,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007330375,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005355425,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982287,0.00003011901,0.0003682711,0.0008341005,0.0002709517,0.0002678133],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998514,0.00005219315,0.0001490759,0.001023249,0.0001940538,0.00006744581],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000001734626,0.0001207754,0.00001807603,0.0000325063,0.00001449361,0.000004817583,0.0003920695,0.06790303,0.00004143915,0.8710265,0.02661446,0.03383015],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004858033,0.000008878771,0.0000472215,0.00001794855,0.000001536547,0.000002587327,9.505369e-7,0.3415489,0.0005124693,0.6547801,0.002852849,0.0001779595],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.00326395,0.00002733151,0.9706467,0.02327748,0.0001546368,0.0007106558,0.00001653659,0.0003212153,0.001581453],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2034755,0.00002763471,0.7899908,0.004700146,0.0003353474,0.0007214716,0.00006164079,0.00002127751,0.0006661304],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2736459,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8870806,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04749184258606044,"score_gpt":0.3173982235553556,"score_spread":0.2699063809692951,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}