{"id":"W4238877560","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/a6euj","title":"Bayesian or biased? Analytic thinking and political belief updating","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Misinformation and Its Impacts","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":35,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Regina","funders":"","keywords":"Sophistication; Operationalization; Bayesian probability; Cognition; Psychology; Politics; Cognitive psychology; Heuristics; Benchmark (surveying); Falsity; Social psychology; Posterior probability; Motivated reasoning; Epistemology; Computer science; Sociology; Artificial intelligence; Political science; Social science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001046382,0.0001493082,0.0002431941,0.0001439832,0.0003590509,0.0006149305,0.000263519,0.0002769847,0.002922341],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00109281,0.0001135724,0.00006037007,0.000132811,0.0001278007,0.0002711313,0.0003102033,0.0003533527,0.0001073194],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001336138,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007482325,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003129813,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00106334,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998374,0.0001120953,0.0003109296,0.0002178386,0.0005141058,0.0004710399],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989679,0.0002425294,0.0001321919,0.0002359706,0.00007631974,0.0003450969],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"qualitative","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000107836,0.00002545622,0.00164194,0.0001758402,0.00004562616,0.000003910382,0.05021712,0.00006824104,0.00000117123,0.9348525,0.006740206,0.00621723],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002528821,0.0003158977,0.01998251,0.002460851,0.0004088423,0.00003030011,0.5532495,0.09632517,0.000164192,0.1967064,0.1238884,0.003939227],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.02671131,0.00002705572,0.004972156,0.006608345,0.0004694835,0.0004057591,0.00001357712,0.0001799299,0.9606124],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9838318,0.00004686855,0.002322459,0.003405563,0.0002681976,9.368441e-7,0.00001964444,0.00001004463,0.01009445],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9571205,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9979891,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04999430216602165,"score_gpt":0.3614644722054076,"score_spread":0.311470170039386,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}