{"id":"W4240876832","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/w2xru","title":"Polarization in America: Two possible futures","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Polarization (electrochemistry); Futures contract; Swing; Democracy; Population; Politics; Political science; Political economy; Economics; Psychology; Positive economics; Sociology; Physics; Law; Financial economics; Demography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008671192,0.0003763163,0.0006634908,0.001424427,0.004785506,0.00776688,0.001174001,0.007406662,0.009577258],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009944147,0.0003005109,0.0005613409,0.001530551,0.01473614,0.01971943,0.006164623,0.007368674,0.0008939485],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003435894,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003417013,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002916246,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004367149,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9957061,0.002222401,0.000090241,0.0005351485,0.0005729638,0.0008731215],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9922497,0.003546339,0.0008711978,0.0005627221,0.001355096,0.001415033],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009951255,0.0001179509,0.008210894,0.0002764968,0.00002611275,0.0003073617,0.01089582,0.0004938181,0.0003657221,0.9036888,0.01653703,0.05898044],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002538541,0.00005191262,0.008556833,0.0004202937,0.00001680434,0.0002361702,0.02513919,0.0006387221,0.0002879141,0.8677659,0.09678944,0.00007147023],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.121189,0.03382231,0.009711658,0.6825249,0.001883982,0.00005008662,0.0003025807,0.00009535694,0.1504202],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9436817,0.01550093,0.004080418,0.02818078,0.001233678,0.00009535514,0.0001287604,0.00002736458,0.007071114],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.009577258,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0458582,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06403189230458552,"score_gpt":0.3906487030387122,"score_spread":0.3266168107341267,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}