{"id":"W4242520249","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-26264/v1","title":"Compartmentalized mathematical model to predict future number of active cases and deaths of COVID-19","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"L'Alliance Boviteq","funders":"","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Computer science; Econometrics; Virology; Mathematics; Biology; Medicine; Internal medicine; Outbreak; Infectious disease (medical specialty)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001178086,0.0009874292,0.001019358,0.0006507477,0.0003840275,0.001252719,0.001644035,0.001565238,0.002121268],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00343066,0.0005495384,0.001219924,0.0005651994,0.0006695343,0.0008301839,0.0009871738,0.00128155,0.0003086036],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00134568,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001306392,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03297478,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01165522,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995915,0.0001468312,0.0000252716,0.000110108,0.00004593165,0.0000804426],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982382,0.001070719,0.0002987977,0.00005402528,0.0002789567,0.00005927035],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001833151,0.000009149132,0.0006980598,0.00001076684,0.00001626703,0.00002635379,0.00001264427,0.9976957,0.0001363904,0.0007461539,0.00009451785,0.0005356359],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002893261,0.000007026506,0.0001326781,0.000001760398,0.00000637474,0.000003816935,0.000004155158,0.9995185,0.00003860232,0.0002114643,0.00007000678,0.000002678012],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4997815,0.001285586,0.4829581,0.001690021,0.0002249463,0.0001622671,0.002146938,0.0006947369,0.01105598],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9784386,0.0003303704,0.01308744,0.0001100693,0.00003046687,0.0001719737,0.0006217136,0.00004593377,0.007163479],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03297478,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06556571,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3725951116683592,"score_gpt":0.4893615212418182,"score_spread":0.116766409573459,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}