{"id":"W4242546425","doi":"10.1002/9780470012505.tat008","title":"Time of Ruin","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"other","venue":"Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science","topic":"Probability and Risk Models","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Ruin theory; First-hitting-time model; Mathematics; Moment (physics); Value (mathematics); Discrete time and continuous time; Applied mathematics; Mathematical economics; Statistics; Risk model; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.004286014,0.0002552748,0.0007798009,0.0008690302,0.0000858186,0.00005279884,0.003475616,0.0003032682,0.00796054],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005321926,0.0001744363,0.0002116089,0.001980421,0.003512527,0.000329566,0.0004721516,0.0002079567,0.0007863601],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00007230307,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002076304,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007381597,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001026091,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9942412,0.0001039096,0.0009676935,0.0008759549,0.003401962,0.0004093287],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9965627,0.0005127211,0.001084964,0.001342134,0.0002980395,0.000199413],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002087113,0.001081994,0.0005805125,0.0001517194,0.00007582341,0.00001719911,0.008878928,0.001319886,0.005780754,0.04106777,0.8297177,0.111119],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007931493,0.0003186293,0.0005860478,0.0003183676,0.00004556933,0.000004504028,0.0001322643,0.0002201856,0.00212842,0.1196372,0.8751832,0.0006324648],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.002586975,0.0002159658,0.00116949,0.0001339196,0.001639718,0.0004233514,0.000101917,0.00005212383,0.9936765],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.03182203,0.0005571695,0.01056903,0.00005561337,0.0009220611,0.0000111666,0.000005661238,0.0001422296,0.955915],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1104866,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999917,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0336116276071077,"score_gpt":0.33446876536874,"score_spread":0.3008571377616323,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}