{"id":"W4242730849","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1363934","title":"Option Trading: Information or Speculation?","year":2009,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Economic Policies and Impacts","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Speculation; Business; Financial economics; Economics; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008226347,0.00009925713,0.0001779739,0.0002211859,0.0001431941,0.000151501,0.0001442743,0.00006144204,0.0001436162],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006740261,0.0000969609,0.0000877898,0.0001281584,0.00001120326,0.001320419,0.000006066072,0.0004845604,0.0004108613],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009531374,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002303267,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00004739924,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004164994,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983034,0.000006302279,0.0005130592,0.00009033612,0.00002532447,0.001061598],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994232,0.000009363818,0.0003607892,0.0001119969,0.00001700537,0.00007762926],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002445076,0.00001864858,0.0007090931,0.000001078404,0.00002415723,2.012901e-7,0.0002002352,0.0001188462,0.000005808212,0.9878716,0.0003074153,0.0107184],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006290633,0.0003594366,0.01534431,0.000004864768,0.000003821473,0.000182446,0.0002851103,0.003502521,0.00001205178,0.9433622,0.03615238,0.0001617934],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8092374,0.00190805,0.09012269,0.007812673,0.0006501234,0.0002471787,0.00002256473,0.00007236047,0.08992696],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9957281,0.001888653,0.0001267121,0.0007531508,0.0002804501,9.373087e-7,0.000007993398,0.000006505901,0.001207546],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1864907,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5280927,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01988783697867144,"score_gpt":0.2246507364557183,"score_spread":0.2047628994770468,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}