{"id":"W4248496475","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/nsw98","title":"Beyond Belief: The Probability-Based Notion of Surprise in Children","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Child and Animal Learning Development","field":"Psychology","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Surprise; Character (mathematics); Psychology; Social psychology; Cognitive psychology; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002868354,0.0004945207,0.000463912,0.0006306875,0.0003642177,0.002766534,0.0005565075,0.001014659,0.002643761],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01450314,0.0005714178,0.0004174743,0.0003596317,0.004131501,0.004377301,0.00134447,0.001961926,0.000400109],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006338454,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00060522,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001941993,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001632963,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986772,0.0002983234,0.00008804271,0.0003361649,0.0004627742,0.0001374697],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9923119,0.003776964,0.002370737,0.0007774173,0.0004563006,0.0003066988],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001003254,0.0005319874,0.5343425,0.00127402,0.0001679538,0.004085077,0.1061178,0.004640524,0.1379718,0.08178428,0.002884483,0.1251964],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007258984,0.001210407,0.8015869,0.0004992332,0.0002217885,0.006021922,0.02106938,0.008967471,0.04007879,0.09977333,0.02024746,0.0002507711],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9731271,0.0008475846,0.01409982,0.0007025992,0.00002815029,0.00001824355,0.0001214812,0.0001202973,0.01093475],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9931682,0.0004432675,0.005372591,0.0001527332,0.0000146875,0.00002461597,0.00008544645,0.00002844031,0.0007099704],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002868354,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0151695,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01607385487136476,"score_gpt":0.2698837847793061,"score_spread":0.2538099299079413,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}