{"id":"W4252185406","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/vk3bf","title":"Uncertainty quantification with experts: present status and research needs","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Judgement; Expert elicitation; Quality (philosophy); Management science; Computer science; Knowledge management; Investment decisions; Data science; Business; Engineering; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.1522203,0.001378094,0.003107891,0.004182633,0.003434118,0.01723896,0.007267799,0.0128128,0.0175647],"category_scores_gemma":[0.2367265,0.001047577,0.001534777,0.007036849,0.01450439,0.03980549,0.007310979,0.01137993,0.004114507],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.006508754,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01462829,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004577531,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004202911,"domain_scores_codex":[0.923071,0.05643263,0.003384697,0.004857101,0.01022183,0.002032782],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.3936138,0.5509834,0.006740001,0.01132886,0.03290635,0.004427732],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000583664,0.0005137809,0.004251516,0.01125669,0.0001798808,0.0003777084,0.01099955,0.004057848,0.0007749386,0.3598154,0.03358335,0.5736057],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008778904,0.0002600801,0.002235419,0.01894285,0.00008498969,0.0004343509,0.02661367,0.009202627,0.00102478,0.8145841,0.1263532,0.0001761521],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.01960622,0.4369085,0.07165381,0.4287175,0.00326013,0.0002432366,0.00037806,0.0001613596,0.03907122],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.327985,0.4935252,0.1229583,0.03193547,0.01393355,0.001455302,0.001153559,0.0002438691,0.00680975],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.1522203,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8050276,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4136745382433872,"score_gpt":0.5054459191427827,"score_spread":0.09177138089939552,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}