{"id":"W4253121926","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2044825","title":"Backtesting","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Risk and Portfolio Optimization","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002695744,0.001565664,0.001467598,0.002211949,0.000686767,0.001785156,0.002017064,0.001683257,0.02706998],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01496056,0.0004793095,0.001154932,0.001208356,0.0008082137,0.00200661,0.001590484,0.001585906,0.0111439],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004011436,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007058874,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005717806,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000745088,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9963757,0.00120391,0.000200635,0.0009241638,0.0009842891,0.000311244],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9899687,0.004419053,0.0003412896,0.003291175,0.001760439,0.0002192988],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000824647,0.0008511682,0.009990117,0.0004768585,0.0003268749,0.0004783061,0.0002259903,0.05014389,0.03325478,0.01197892,0.02745118,0.8639973],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005483542,0.00276802,0.01137298,0.0003666351,0.0006695751,0.002256091,0.0004219835,0.72989,0.1001773,0.06897663,0.08237302,0.0001793531],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3041375,0.002334668,0.535795,0.001831295,0.001964897,0.001295988,0.003755827,0.01913249,0.1297524],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7422873,0.0004629166,0.1959855,0.002153355,0.0003792926,0.0008285588,0.005460624,0.002108563,0.05033379],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02706998,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09055811,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07052102809816646,"score_gpt":0.3428157924890571,"score_spread":0.2722947643908906,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}