{"id":"W4253121926","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2044825","title":"Backtesting","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Risk and Portfolio Optimization","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004693827,0.00009101983,0.0001450209,0.0002032081,0.0005155863,0.00009402578,0.0004629885,0.00004749469,0.0001432298],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001299109,0.00006468441,0.0001028,0.0006073533,0.00005015466,0.0003978991,0.00003060306,0.0008930889,0.0004881274],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001874629,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001696242,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001803867,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006980155,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970073,0.0001238547,0.0004541879,0.0001900152,0.0008522501,0.001372368],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998939,0.0002325628,0.0002597261,0.0002107414,0.0002649863,0.00009294519],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000072937,0.000110808,0.2766631,4.311463e-7,0.00007785366,0.0000789441,0.001069312,0.01037086,0.0002371883,0.1526488,0.01271266,0.5459572],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006238177,0.0002392989,0.01272405,0.000005260137,0.00001170113,0.008819327,0.001444619,0.003909337,0.00008200067,0.9295893,0.04230218,0.0002491414],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7777672,0.002397839,0.1895642,0.001162639,0.0005660562,0.00008361677,8.28778e-7,0.00005493459,0.02840263],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9772774,0.008294453,0.0009742997,0.0001018031,0.0003506114,7.950067e-7,7.772437e-7,0.00001043855,0.0129894],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7769405,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6274053,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07052102809816646,"score_gpt":0.3428157924890571,"score_spread":0.2722947643908906,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}