{"id":"W4253793614","doi":"10.19124/ima.2021.01.2","title":"A Novel Pattern- driven Stochastic Process for End-of-Life Forecasting","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Process (computing); Computer science; Stochastic process; Artificial intelligence; Statistics; Mathematics; Programming language","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001478859,0.0007935548,0.001207954,0.000720405,0.0003859501,0.0009797983,0.001719542,0.001259478,0.001671481],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003653613,0.0004792452,0.001070514,0.001060678,0.0004957055,0.000951634,0.000797121,0.001467345,0.0003556769],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006852357,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009485503,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01340632,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00714334,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994996,0.000121626,0.00003346837,0.0001540415,0.0001308225,0.00006045734],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987935,0.0007542182,0.0001296918,0.00004663373,0.0002307391,0.00004518788],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003577829,0.00002729496,0.001582644,0.00004527136,0.00003689491,0.00007601125,0.00003338846,0.9648255,0.0006381614,0.007439846,0.0005266343,0.02473257],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000001144036,0.000002794313,0.00006638531,0.00000129123,0.00000181454,0.000004751174,9.158892e-7,0.9991807,0.00003686607,0.0006313239,0.00007022936,0.000001651213],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.01902819,0.0003874268,0.9787406,0.0002253811,0.00008517241,0.00003161783,0.0001444063,0.0002542519,0.001102865],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8847535,0.0008944721,0.1085071,0.0001951666,0.000194086,0.0002089599,0.000728713,0.00006666983,0.00445124],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01340632,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02665663,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08597512596955864,"score_gpt":0.3447538203400974,"score_spread":0.2587786943705387,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}