{"id":"W4254031159","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2516550","title":"Market Timing","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Business; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007915323,0.0004058006,0.0004304494,0.001436123,0.0005117496,0.00315625,0.0005535592,0.001075472,0.08378923],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008301791,0.0003256708,0.0003714207,0.001041775,0.0003154898,0.003022001,0.0006481885,0.001089268,0.01649366],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007546663,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004353331,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009699789,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006768787,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995416,0.00004613266,0.0000250646,0.0001429527,0.0001786071,0.00006563472],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982716,0.0005401894,0.000301871,0.0003034968,0.0003844532,0.0001983039],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003746953,0.0001572555,0.008097295,0.0001572654,0.00004489811,0.0004459369,0.0002782187,0.004368698,0.007976598,0.7896363,0.04455643,0.1439064],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002246604,0.0003658591,0.04245046,0.0001496689,0.0001008542,0.0017946,0.0004570095,0.03235517,0.01082616,0.5676022,0.3435493,0.000124102],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1047802,0.00254903,0.08032787,0.002845374,0.001521654,0.0002836651,0.005414174,0.001643121,0.8006349],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7721573,0.0012217,0.008301282,0.0005778123,0.0006917758,0.0001267864,0.002634112,0.0004120876,0.2138772],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.08378923,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2803029,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01602641475533729,"score_gpt":0.2013957657408981,"score_spread":0.1853693509855608,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}