{"id":"W4254073030","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/pj79r","title":"A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Fallacy; Basketball; Extant taxon; Illusion; Shower; Empirical evidence; Psychology; Sample (material); Econometrics; Empirical research; Cognitive psychology; Computer science; Positive economics; Epistemology; Economics; Engineering; Geography; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00652631,0.000392847,0.000771427,0.0006025244,0.0009284906,0.002215809,0.0009860384,0.002010581,0.01728394],"category_scores_gemma":[0.115361,0.0003624169,0.0005040908,0.0005976577,0.003624228,0.002314018,0.001642577,0.002236413,0.00207302],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003798874,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004287919,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002267483,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001803664,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9972523,0.00104476,0.0001730534,0.0008728984,0.0005584623,0.00009841075],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8135538,0.126116,0.02616161,0.02761523,0.00428342,0.002269996],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01129446,0.002634544,0.6643393,0.001750482,0.001735741,0.001684826,0.008947132,0.007442042,0.04124355,0.07617775,0.03596692,0.1467832],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00104585,0.001308002,0.7888641,0.0004530115,0.0005373782,0.00145338,0.004107242,0.03697636,0.0104314,0.128515,0.02605277,0.0002554481],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9495078,0.00073632,0.02490215,0.003324634,0.0002135031,0.00007669017,0.001073934,0.0001621547,0.02000291],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9941645,0.000123027,0.002951332,0.0006865126,0.0001353697,0.00003050837,0.0005924156,0.00005173193,0.001264493],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01728394,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05782056,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1822701477617313,"score_gpt":0.2731551670681688,"score_spread":0.09088501930643758,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}