{"id":"W4254073030","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/pj79r","title":"A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Fallacy; Basketball; Extant taxon; Illusion; Shower; Empirical evidence; Psychology; Sample (material); Econometrics; Empirical research; Cognitive psychology; Computer science; Positive economics; Epistemology; Economics; Engineering; Geography; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","scholarly_communication","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002341292,0.0004942039,0.001106423,0.0003049089,0.0006662142,0.001711735,0.001635217,0.0003633974,0.003242663],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002808016,0.0003327119,0.0006806949,0.0004026353,0.0003306718,0.0001896267,0.0007192542,0.0004814391,0.000260825],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001511575,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008594632,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01204732,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01205765,"domain_scores_codex":[0.996955,0.00005260822,0.001114862,0.001158732,0.000145196,0.00057356],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960481,0.0008091526,0.0009985206,0.001913056,0.0001520131,0.00007918362],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001175146,0.0008511004,0.04369852,0.002537474,0.004545047,0.00002806482,0.02868022,0.009117494,0.00008315813,0.2460867,0.6595132,0.003683876],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001287124,0.000270835,0.02056578,0.0006064881,0.0003630274,0.000009115774,0.00219719,0.06917007,0.0001661296,0.01413346,0.8896945,0.001536288],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2398141,0.1541732,0.4294049,0.06798226,0.01176343,0.02080974,0.006730554,0.0002712213,0.06905057],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9711955,0.001516122,0.0005561836,0.00155784,0.0006708747,0.0006936885,0.00003910969,0.00005911311,0.0237116],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7313814,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999125,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1822701477617313,"score_gpt":0.2731551670681688,"score_spread":0.09088501930643758,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}