{"id":"W4256009108","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2023906","title":"Are Analysts Really Too Optimistic?","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Complex Systems and Decision Making","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary; HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Computer science; Business; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01552506,0.0002108456,0.000469178,0.0004744302,0.0004777318,0.000516742,0.001101198,0.00009348078,0.0004765161],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003457349,0.0001427159,0.0003326871,0.0008984686,0.0000458779,0.000638024,0.0001598544,0.00127724,0.0008903418],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005861634,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008097357,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00003320914,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003427654,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9930543,0.0003653989,0.001079839,0.000345517,0.002127771,0.003027234],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9966263,0.000748025,0.001104489,0.0006577107,0.0005137289,0.0003497301],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001616257,0.0002257876,0.1252138,0.000003338112,0.0002556387,0.00003905645,0.0005528068,0.0008269076,0.0003680282,0.6977233,0.05358001,0.1210497],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006950308,0.0001407947,0.07520663,0.00003366759,0.0000489368,0.002846795,0.007702166,0.001160059,0.00001343929,0.8209759,0.09073897,0.0004376275],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4993859,0.02949955,0.4240414,0.001512995,0.003490575,0.0003087708,0.00001039823,0.0001192401,0.04163116],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9814322,0.00009475519,0.000569361,0.0002139034,0.001158559,0.000002428774,3.226056e-7,0.00001979857,0.01650866],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4820463,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998876,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1062889816325455,"score_gpt":0.3904700265094091,"score_spread":0.2841810448768636,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}