{"id":"W4281387666","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20221003","title":"Hidden Debt","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"AEA Papers and Proceedings","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Debt; Sovereign default; Monetary economics; Debt levels and flows; Bond; Economics; Portfolio; Internal debt; Debt-to-GDP ratio; Transparency (behavior); Recourse debt; Government debt; External debt; Sovereign debt; Financial system; Business; Financial economics; Sovereignty; Finance; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0001983651,0.00008997398,0.0001782307,0.00006864886,0.0003401689,0.00006330797,0.0001249976,0.0000294493,0.0006964416],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002267962,0.0001027817,0.00005107007,0.0001749958,0.00003108286,0.0000919939,0.0001213275,0.0001080572,0.00006040757],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003307669,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000005325791,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000278526,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000003411372,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993324,0.000001371519,0.0001977995,0.0002259424,0.00003276658,0.0002096903],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997762,0.000007392884,0.00009530783,0.00005045232,0.00001156561,0.00005902426],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000009698481,0.00001733372,0.06253754,0.00001257515,0.00001057312,0.000001097362,0.001163528,5.041243e-7,0.00009782937,0.909573,0.0239366,0.002639781],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001912596,0.0001355121,0.04548291,0.000001924987,0.000003116874,0.0000143059,0.0006484715,0.00002170586,0.00002178877,0.02669986,0.926609,0.0001700851],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6757675,0.002186484,7.398343e-7,0.0014209,0.0001597371,0.00006711524,0.00006034341,0.000026398,0.3203108],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9956062,0.0002449789,0.00009776754,0.001261227,0.00008212202,0.0000317741,0.00000370465,0.00001154596,0.002660674],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9026725,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7625547,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01466868202415368,"score_gpt":0.1962264169940222,"score_spread":0.1815577349698685,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}