{"id":"W4281387666","doi":"10.1257/pandp.20221003","title":"Hidden Debt","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"AEA Papers and Proceedings","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Debt; Sovereign default; Monetary economics; Debt levels and flows; Bond; Economics; Portfolio; Internal debt; Debt-to-GDP ratio; Transparency (behavior); Recourse debt; Government debt; External debt; Sovereign debt; Financial system; Business; Financial economics; Sovereignty; Finance; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001817576,0.0005732229,0.00103494,0.0006970795,0.0005630135,0.002936952,0.00135094,0.002146913,0.006695781],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00902984,0.000542853,0.0007144092,0.0008274422,0.001346959,0.004256361,0.001138188,0.002546702,0.0004579336],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001749252,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001075463,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004565242,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002549381,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993927,0.0001780419,0.00003532558,0.0001427897,0.00009981172,0.0001511372],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9933044,0.002690441,0.002585462,0.0004921461,0.0004907707,0.0004366364],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001351184,0.0001227808,0.004828573,0.0001423918,0.00009763161,0.000616966,0.0001668808,0.1314368,0.001132458,0.8479996,0.003560116,0.009760605],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001228491,0.0001020699,0.002439854,0.00008094322,0.00005376854,0.0002671171,0.00008385628,0.530084,0.0005075372,0.4625571,0.003656895,0.00004407863],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6044165,0.005669715,0.3083197,0.01544347,0.0004435526,0.0001030147,0.001999587,0.0004908566,0.06311359],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9877595,0.0007175053,0.002065992,0.0001676218,0.0001072906,0.00001983697,0.0001963506,0.00001976306,0.008946234],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006695781,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0223996,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01466868202415368,"score_gpt":0.1962264169940222,"score_spread":0.1815577349698685,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}