{"id":"W4281630480","doi":"10.3389/ffgc.2022.895579","title":"In the Pursuit of Synchrony: Northward Shifts in Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in a Warming Environment","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Frontiers in Forests and Global Change","topic":"Fire effects on ecosystems","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Spruce budworm; Phenology; Climate change; Biology; Outbreak; Latitude; Range (aeronautics); Ecology; Herbivore; Growing season; Choristoneura fumiferana; Larva; Douglas fir; Global warming; Geography; Tortricidae; Botany","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001076059,0.0001764632,0.0002965645,0.0001096371,0.00004388028,0.0000225268,0.0005342404,0.00006543,0.00007289641],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000145105,0.000153678,0.00003615666,0.0004468542,0.0001178039,0.0002444136,0.0005419315,0.0002343613,0.000008070203],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001034248,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000007135425,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01780931,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06011893,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980861,0.0002037949,0.000360877,0.0003781656,0.0005429757,0.0004280956],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999562,0.00003099553,0.0001057244,0.0002507935,8.577883e-7,0.00004965204],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000532424,0.0001452009,0.9867091,0.00003064756,0.000002723963,0.0001472671,0.003223832,0.0005806644,0.00000435285,0.00001669176,0.0003993756,0.008686909],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008440264,0.0001478336,0.9892834,0.00004607137,0.000003238863,0.00001043623,0.0005833408,0.003530347,0.000003288215,0.0003858398,0.004999894,0.0001622752],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9969255,0.0008605742,0.00002386526,0.0005244737,0.0003784487,0.0008423227,0.00005235967,0.000005243603,0.000387217],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991629,0.00005588184,0.0001221204,0.0002875035,0.00002665275,0.0003022683,0.000007746365,0.00001063443,0.0000243645],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04230962,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9887312,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01092446134043198,"score_gpt":0.2161153389312325,"score_spread":0.2051908775908005,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}