{"id":"W4281723409","doi":"10.1111/ele.14033","title":"Predictive models aren't for causal inference","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Ecology Letters","topic":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":138,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University","funders":"","keywords":"Causal inference; Observational study; Inference; Causal model; Causal structure; Predictive inference; Causality (physics); Machine learning; Computer science; Econometrics; Ecology; Artificial intelligence; Frequentist inference; Bayesian inference; Mathematics; Statistics; Biology; Bayesian probability","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.05228376,0.002419408,0.004119619,0.004270195,0.001995598,0.007677534,0.005539426,0.005649002,0.0105077],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1906918,0.002337082,0.002628963,0.004145777,0.01441765,0.01940648,0.004100583,0.01911996,0.002527131],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00365177,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003035179,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005648983,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004581736,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9696585,0.01686394,0.001522733,0.005859145,0.005498984,0.0005967799],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7728987,0.195713,0.01024231,0.013836,0.006228975,0.001080944],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":"methods","domain_candidate":"methods","domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006097562,0.00004328518,0.00172415,0.0007624342,0.000629188,0.0001526411,0.0003474272,0.01310365,0.00009679185,0.9405757,0.006899294,0.03560456],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002864883,0.000008437115,0.0001560401,0.0001418052,0.00004995015,0.00004568022,0.00002938575,0.01079246,0.00004681463,0.9837407,0.004939426,0.00002058953],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.004201165,0.00550412,0.9468291,0.02832689,0.001228615,0.0001693663,0.001014861,0.0004913988,0.01223455],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.4777487,0.01616147,0.4609051,0.02455011,0.006624216,0.002140875,0.001813622,0.0008569508,0.009198888],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9477162,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2765063,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02761812261061658,"score_gpt":0.2557518434216327,"score_spread":0.2281337208110161,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}