{"id":"W4281723409","doi":"10.1111/ele.14033","title":"Predictive models aren't for causal inference","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Ecology Letters","topic":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":138,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University","funders":"","keywords":"Causal inference; Observational study; Inference; Causal model; Causal structure; Predictive inference; Causality (physics); Machine learning; Computer science; Econometrics; Ecology; Artificial intelligence; Frequentist inference; Bayesian inference; Mathematics; Statistics; Biology; Bayesian probability","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002978372,0.0001343579,0.0001683568,0.0001100506,0.0004162005,0.00004911903,0.0009510709,0.00004696524,0.00004170406],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003558967,0.0001472211,0.00006969624,0.000188564,0.00006642596,0.0003011555,0.0004588472,0.0002837388,0.00001357355],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001339476,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001305726,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001959515,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00001378517,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986349,0.0001188925,0.0001939658,0.0004697476,0.0001728309,0.0004096768],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991415,0.000278756,0.00008516685,0.0003680844,0.00005029546,0.00007616272],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008408936,0.0002785681,0.003513269,0.00002100876,0.0001603819,0.00007850533,0.003113357,0.6515723,0.003213444,0.2761023,0.05551964,0.006343161],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004193331,0.000397604,0.001285617,0.000002498522,0.00001251362,0.00002161655,0.00003669612,0.9546672,0.0001180077,0.04187438,0.0009356916,0.0002288729],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.04437821,0.00001708278,0.9441547,0.00974765,0.0008541094,0.0002441119,0.00002652886,0.0001941666,0.0003834781],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9711173,0.000002300465,0.01901352,0.009250861,0.00006350531,0.0004155336,0.0000123495,0.00001024567,0.0001144242],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.926739,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6003502,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02761812261061658,"score_gpt":0.2557518434216327,"score_spread":0.2281337208110161,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}