{"id":"W4281969102","doi":"10.1017/s0140525x22001157","title":"Conviction Narrative Theory: A theory of choice under radical uncertainty","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Behavioral and Brain Sciences","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":116,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond; University of Cambridge; UK Research and Innovation; Aarhus Universitet","keywords":"Narrative; Conviction; Psychology; Futures contract; Cognition; Mental representation; Vocabulary; Cognitive psychology; Deliberation; Epistemology; Social psychology; Linguistics; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005183276,0.0005185429,0.0004975577,0.001632844,0.001442858,0.005101365,0.001655332,0.001915224,0.006997918],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01538719,0.0003112134,0.001164531,0.001465055,0.00892768,0.007339459,0.002016541,0.002549198,0.0004528439],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003548693,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002219046,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002343306,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001649461,"domain_scores_codex":[0.996771,0.001969228,0.0001345664,0.0002771926,0.0006630032,0.0001849867],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9871687,0.009353431,0.001154038,0.0006058107,0.00109115,0.0006268288],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007572134,0.00000950835,0.0002016131,0.00002209622,0.000005564189,0.00003826636,0.0005441454,0.001688435,0.00002172093,0.9951073,0.0004220601,0.001931792],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000854436,0.000006814822,0.0001244624,0.00002891942,0.000004134664,0.00003012001,0.0002449044,0.007246289,0.00002515119,0.9897866,0.002488743,0.00000522237],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.09033262,0.002840154,0.6241002,0.02780625,0.0004089837,0.0002668748,0.0004454514,0.00009797147,0.2537016],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9401538,0.0009765006,0.05127161,0.0008659702,0.0001858806,0.0002343905,0.00017503,0.00002973619,0.006107119],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.006997918,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02741212,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1813556990338463,"score_gpt":0.4260144985023377,"score_spread":0.2446587994684914,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}