{"id":"W4281969102","doi":"10.1017/s0140525x22001157","title":"Conviction Narrative Theory: A theory of choice under radical uncertainty","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Behavioral and Brain Sciences","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":116,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; Aarhus Universitets Forskningsfond; University of Cambridge; UK Research and Innovation; Aarhus Universitet","keywords":"Narrative; Conviction; Psychology; Futures contract; Cognition; Mental representation; Vocabulary; Cognitive psychology; Deliberation; Epistemology; Social psychology; Linguistics; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009979659,0.0001730103,0.0003659221,0.000335108,0.001269833,0.0002461852,0.0009722954,0.00006261142,0.002341009],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008947888,0.0001181656,0.0001253884,0.001316482,0.001849716,0.0004314479,0.0004659393,0.0002412766,0.00001481864],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006009841,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002171357,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002114307,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00008807466,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9960557,0.0009755195,0.0006423346,0.000719108,0.001309322,0.0002980808],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.995898,0.003100247,0.0003869944,0.000326081,0.0001521155,0.0001365507],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000352337,0.0007430089,0.03406747,0.000002175024,0.00001307133,0.00001564966,0.01040396,0.002316473,0.003915821,0.1443804,0.006011556,0.7977781],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008102343,0.001575611,0.02903771,0.00001558129,0.00004163574,0.0000791643,0.09380633,0.0008307303,0.0002621236,0.8507555,0.02235508,0.0004303606],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9960489,0.000144745,0.0004580732,0.001822431,0.000587009,0.0001779562,0.00007115896,0.00003030894,0.0006594554],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979247,0.000003241903,0.0002553275,0.0006567106,0.00004140938,0.00002569269,0.000004344371,0.000006666497,0.001081893],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7973477,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.998571,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1813556990338463,"score_gpt":0.4260144985023377,"score_spread":0.2446587994684914,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}