{"id":"W4281984810","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/xdt4k","title":"Human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox transmission and burden in non-endemic countries","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Zoonotic diseases and public health","field":"Medicine","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Monkeypox; Public health; Probabilistic logic; Outbreak; Situation awareness; Computer science; Operations research; Actuarial science; Business; Artificial intelligence; Medicine; Virology; Engineering; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003126434,0.0005774072,0.0003129182,0.0006986527,0.0003611677,0.0009741571,0.0004590601,0.0006724038,0.002908953],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01818149,0.0001775688,0.0004548088,0.0005930555,0.0003366118,0.0009081137,0.000787317,0.0007490866,0.0004857368],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007220739,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008423091,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01788406,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01424938,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991055,0.0004465483,0.00003896095,0.0001875718,0.0001462447,0.00007514376],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9940706,0.003985908,0.0004946854,0.0004742802,0.0006879866,0.0002865079],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000570134,0.0001286819,0.118102,0.0001310008,0.0001769786,0.0002614497,0.00120535,0.7804083,0.001570549,0.002452983,0.01148969,0.08350281],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003903004,0.0001089299,0.03046982,0.0000509738,0.00003874115,0.0000361223,0.0005255932,0.9560279,0.001122861,0.00859522,0.002936101,0.00004864436],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9095057,0.0003354766,0.06953733,0.00215098,0.0002836228,0.0001652865,0.003307247,0.000691686,0.01402273],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9879611,0.0000767411,0.009788834,0.00009295632,0.00005928882,0.00003945045,0.00123768,0.00002517337,0.0007187425],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01788406,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03555995,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03055258180623975,"score_gpt":0.3346242231772625,"score_spread":0.3040716413710227,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}