{"id":"W4283074295","doi":"10.5547/01956574.44.4.rell","title":"Futures Prices are Useful Predictors of the Spot Price of Crude Oil","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Energy Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":12,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Futures contract; Spot contract; Crude oil; Economics; Econometrics; Financial economics; Heating oil; Horizon; Oil price; Monetary economics; Mathematics; Petroleum engineering; Chemistry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001933869,0.0005404428,0.0004287866,0.001016618,0.0002389405,0.001923912,0.0003237333,0.0007617489,0.002025386],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0211956,0.000304794,0.0002468327,0.001406034,0.0003469824,0.003650157,0.0004793817,0.001078883,0.0009301631],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003625911,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005233465,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006673048,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006609295,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994111,0.0001713835,0.00004345395,0.0001368856,0.0001791851,0.00005799502],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9892117,0.00584951,0.002454713,0.0008563913,0.001407774,0.0002199254],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008274405,0.0001201101,0.6087407,0.0002086471,0.0003859045,0.0001799587,0.0003633256,0.1288053,0.008728759,0.009228807,0.008612261,0.2337987],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004053635,0.0002100568,0.5201404,0.0001071921,0.0001447372,0.0001786226,0.0003123897,0.4354154,0.01241215,0.02069192,0.0101873,0.0001593693],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9456412,0.002077405,0.03503301,0.001616163,0.0001641689,0.00001872704,0.004192708,0.0004484561,0.01080825],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9931901,0.0006671657,0.003621643,0.00004023676,0.00010636,0.000003409904,0.001567589,0.00005265142,0.0007508325],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006673048,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01326841,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01334295258980614,"score_gpt":0.1838808473470979,"score_spread":0.1705378947572918,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}