{"id":"W4283728899","doi":"10.5539/ijsp.v11n4p53","title":"Modeling Average Rainfall in Nigeria With Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Models and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Models","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Statistics and Probability","topic":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","field":"Engineering","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Artificial neural network; Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm; Conjugate gradient method; Gradient descent; Mathematics; Bayesian probability; Box–Jenkins; Mean squared error; Mean absolute percentage error; Statistics; Econometrics; Computer science; Algorithm; Time series; Artificial intelligence","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005633106,0.0001759572,0.0002527641,0.0001059616,0.0001152955,0.0001194649,0.0001707943,0.00004061751,0.00003314867],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004175055,0.0001574637,0.00003372317,0.0000867838,0.00005431483,0.0004019445,0.000100109,0.0005394456,6.333599e-8],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001756021,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000931801,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00006654019,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001758343,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985728,0.00008781608,0.0005203222,0.0001749123,0.0004235205,0.0002205937],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993011,0.000149518,0.00013643,0.00006770613,0.0002469504,0.00009825269],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002745904,0.00003297466,0.00147655,0.0000230127,0.00007683372,0.0001416305,0.001275662,0.9811226,0.00003326798,0.008887542,0.00002857044,0.00662682],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004278375,0.00008825085,0.0001939042,0.0000752597,0.00000900021,0.0001493166,0.00008857536,0.9000772,0.000005050057,0.09870482,0.00003172453,0.0001490702],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6081717,0.0002711774,0.3906724,0.00005673127,0.0003791348,0.0000708081,0.0002040116,0.00001597285,0.0001580434],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9803367,0.00007119789,0.01932977,0.00004637056,0.0001436578,0.000007398372,0.0000365062,0.00002123942,0.000007115496],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3721651,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6421184,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01809972405658004,"score_gpt":0.2288873160238427,"score_spread":0.2107875919672627,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}