{"id":"W4286685933","doi":"10.1080/23737484.2022.2093294","title":"Evaluation of the forecasting accuracy of stochastic mortality models: An analysis of developed and developing countries","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Communications in Statistics Case Studies Data Analysis and Applications","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Mortality rate; Demography; Cohort; Age groups; Developing country; Statistics; Geography; Econometrics; Medicine; Mathematics; Economics; Economic growth; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006072179,0.00009519228,0.0004312605,0.0004969853,0.001423005,0.0000244327,0.000915942,0.00001987562,0.000008620692],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008451102,0.0000909062,0.0000503604,0.00436011,0.001157492,0.0001906884,0.001652198,0.00009934295,2.064984e-8],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000108991,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002324935,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006045493,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1315234,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971445,0.001021107,0.0007580527,0.0002826286,0.0006758575,0.0001179114],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9948012,0.001297004,0.0007801631,0.001988293,0.001107827,0.00002547483],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000005774348,0.0003031822,0.1155011,0.00009946251,0.01010606,8.944849e-7,0.02420207,0.08571958,0.000001894895,0.7352847,0.00002875517,0.02874651],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001708672,0.000008081251,0.09010386,0.00001301688,0.02075393,0.000001034245,0.05714098,0.8136808,8.363657e-7,0.01774536,0.0002364236,0.0001447526],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4344438,0.004980476,0.5461962,0.0003572466,0.00002476521,0.001564076,0.01209713,0.00001357945,0.0003227524],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.976658,0.003166194,0.01912569,0.00001497265,0.00000344012,0.0003503285,0.0006753536,0.000004301196,0.000001725728],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7279612,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.999877,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4044572865081186,"score_gpt":0.4905363894244721,"score_spread":0.08607910291635346,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}