{"id":"W4286697393","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raac013","title":"Why Do Predicted Stock Issuers Earn Low Returns?","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Review of Asset Pricing Studies","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Earnings; Issuer; Cash flow; Stock (firearms); Economics; Volatility (finance); Market liquidity; Financial economics; Web site; Capital asset pricing model; Lottery; Monetary economics; Business; The Internet; Finance; Microeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00214088,0.0001697712,0.0003166639,0.0008183086,0.0002095847,0.00140995,0.0003597112,0.0007065052,0.00547334],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01878824,0.0001187968,0.0001331158,0.0008005518,0.0005707785,0.001023109,0.0003422678,0.0006691932,0.001153453],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002946873,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001445358,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008884243,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009237239,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991903,0.0002957223,0.00006504049,0.0001088328,0.0002380875,0.0001020617],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9832772,0.00675605,0.006775553,0.0007734154,0.001645049,0.0007728167],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003590314,0.0001671434,0.8925118,0.0001566225,0.000133015,0.0006768271,0.0004244293,0.0008598231,0.00118381,0.006137835,0.01006191,0.08732772],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005471418,0.0002852985,0.9693472,0.00009223167,0.00007223381,0.0009092453,0.001155516,0.003729129,0.001405548,0.01532142,0.00760322,0.00002420808],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9828202,0.002492775,0.001561404,0.004431875,0.0001563909,0.00001655301,0.0003860638,0.00004681629,0.008088011],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.998122,0.0004501225,0.0001189251,0.0002528023,0.0001074314,0.000002742638,0.00008306885,0.000004521294,0.0008582118],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00547334,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01831019,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04463873558901847,"score_gpt":0.2764500224437154,"score_spread":0.2318112868546969,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}