{"id":"W4288947952","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3462107","title":"The Persistence of Miscalibration","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada; Government of Canada; University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Confidence interval; Econometrics; Bayesian probability; Persistence (discontinuity); Economics; Conviction; Statistics; Actuarial science; Mathematics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004361334,0.0001797671,0.0006042439,0.003034224,0.001723356,0.005271446,0.001300598,0.002323904,0.01016821],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1223929,0.0004657286,0.0003121325,0.003513362,0.003167159,0.006140481,0.002169756,0.002326051,0.001605386],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001191361,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001196441,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004274182,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002081775,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9963171,0.001077374,0.0002876485,0.0009611927,0.0008225873,0.0005340318],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.812372,0.09518659,0.0445513,0.03144008,0.01332125,0.00312876],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001188337,0.0002963517,0.5199511,0.0003468071,0.0004280453,0.001429702,0.02106373,0.01261287,0.004511757,0.2466117,0.01621426,0.1753454],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000852777,0.0002931464,0.5395032,0.0002517708,0.0002617388,0.002830659,0.01615415,0.05294183,0.004472177,0.3441708,0.03876518,0.0002700308],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.950518,0.0009714976,0.009309738,0.004747282,0.00007883917,0.00002502833,0.0005120541,0.000369289,0.03346836],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9987079,0.00007809092,0.000305497,0.00007763226,0.0000310618,0.000005105501,0.00006825921,0.00002617807,0.0007003237],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01016821,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03401601,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01245498673227551,"score_gpt":0.1781743520495851,"score_spread":0.1657193653173096,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}