{"id":"W4288947952","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3462107","title":"The Persistence of Miscalibration","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada; Government of Canada; University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Confidence interval; Econometrics; Bayesian probability; Persistence (discontinuity); Economics; Conviction; Statistics; Actuarial science; Mathematics; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001157791,0.00005807824,0.0001758281,0.00005939316,0.0001400469,0.00005290766,0.0002155674,0.0000262413,0.0002208284],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002400231,0.00004521107,0.000167799,0.0001521623,0.00002402875,0.0001264651,0.00001926852,0.0002963005,0.0001938838],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001565453,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001172143,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001384165,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002754262,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988537,0.0000139539,0.0003884459,0.0001080731,0.0000377674,0.0005980813],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993706,0.00002935603,0.0003649096,0.0001818389,0.00003106904,0.00002219521],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000009965498,0.00000878764,0.01551193,0.000003305161,0.0001169965,6.618907e-8,0.00006897399,0.00006038857,0.00003764972,0.9826606,0.00004762196,0.001473713],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005362799,0.0003515511,0.007115264,0.00001407925,0.00001809745,0.00008171295,0.004440918,0.005900692,0.00004422428,0.8838561,0.09742448,0.0002166609],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9052437,0.03222188,0.009083657,0.002581353,0.0005842334,0.0001954968,0.00001011745,0.00001433539,0.05006524],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.98575,0.001597084,0.00001957657,0.00001436832,0.00006555316,0.000001042119,8.709233e-7,0.000006967294,0.01254449],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.09880456,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2492048,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01245498673227551,"score_gpt":0.1781743520495851,"score_spread":0.1657193653173096,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}