{"id":"W4289261700","doi":"10.1038/s41597-022-01517-w","title":"The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Scientific Data","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":129,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University; University of British Columbia; University of Victoria; TRIUMF","funders":"Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Quest for Intelligence, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Plant Sciences Institute, Iowa State University; National Institutes of Health; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Klaus Tschira Stiftung; Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Iowa; Iowa State University; North Carolina State University; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; National Institute of General Medical Sciences; University of Massachusetts Amherst; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Wellcome Trust; U.S. Department of Energy; National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; California Institute of Technology; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Los Alamos National Laboratory; Johns Hopkins University; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; National Nuclear Security Administration; Laboratory Directed Research and Development; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Leverage (statistics); Download; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Government (linguistics); Pandemic; Scale (ratio); Disease control; Computer science; Data science; Econometrics; Business; Geography; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Economics; World Wide Web; Environmental health; Medicine; Machine learning","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","sts","open_science","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01094649,0.0001592594,0.0002228026,0.0001067952,0.004642439,0.0003084228,0.003997376,0.00002302092,0.001035615],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02590929,0.00009970433,0.00003956913,0.001180249,0.0008160411,0.0001506367,0.01052375,0.0002798562,0.0001158179],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001940405,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001714233,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0006322459,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009312637,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9969136,0.0005931893,0.0004323687,0.0009009634,0.0006515099,0.0005084379],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9874839,0.008052909,0.000218212,0.00400153,0.00005063444,0.000192844],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001908434,0.0000669891,0.0002402255,0.00002867544,0.00003247052,0.00001113818,0.0002240437,0.0001883863,0.000007244786,0.008520539,0.9900146,0.0006466325],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001621983,0.00002349674,0.00004359692,0.0000020751,0.00002586157,0.000004861138,0.001300181,0.007792692,0.000002765998,0.1147376,0.8757815,0.0001231415],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"dataset","genre_gemma":"dataset","genre_scores_codex":[0.01950302,0.001024015,0.01109891,0.09087831,0.004543778,0.001872613,0.8699026,0.0006387659,0.0005379612],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.03333975,0.0002851113,0.007176215,0.02870728,0.0002990096,0.0005093457,0.9138445,0.0000926816,0.01574609],"genre_candidate":"dataset","genre_consensus":"dataset","teacher_disagreement_score":0.114233,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998776,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.5946829767412236,"score_gpt":0.495350206423102,"score_spread":0.0993327703181216,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}