{"id":"W4291903984","doi":"10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6","title":"Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature Sustainability","topic":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":43,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia; McGill University","funders":"Agencia Estatal de Investigación; Chinese Universities Scientific Fund; Natural Environment Research Council; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; Eusko Jaurlaritza; European Regional Development Fund; European Commission; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Aalto-Yliopisto; Sight Research UK; Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851; Australian Government; Academy of Finland; Open Philanthropy Project; National Aeronautics and Space Administration","keywords":"Earth system science; Biosphere; Sustainability; Environmental resource management; Earth science; Production (economics); Food systems; Environmental science; Biogeochemical cycle; Earth observation; Expert elicitation; Computer science; Ecology; Food security; Engineering; Geography; Geology; Biology; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0187329,0.001405704,0.0006087709,0.002633775,0.0009718389,0.002609019,0.001280368,0.001596505,0.00657779],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08957776,0.0005342081,0.001164305,0.001939206,0.0009567637,0.002885945,0.004203529,0.001144774,0.0004295968],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003817714,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003036943,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007881948,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01091303,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9738608,0.0206233,0.0010815,0.001676652,0.002037163,0.0007205579],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8177421,0.1664254,0.007265366,0.004190702,0.003667612,0.0007088038],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001522927,0.0009525708,0.1209539,0.004166539,0.001157017,0.0008745518,0.01154467,0.6085409,0.0131197,0.02970304,0.004299,0.2031652],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001883425,0.0005890288,0.04082529,0.000778504,0.0004390183,0.0001812749,0.008230703,0.8331156,0.007033379,0.09838524,0.01003981,0.0001937998],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.658532,0.0003833655,0.311081,0.001861436,0.00003332863,0.001484376,0.004769461,0.0003990046,0.02145603],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.930154,0.0000897066,0.06769076,0.000133844,0.00000824082,0.0005715268,0.001084268,0.00001530945,0.0002524103],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0187329,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.09907025,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.007269413066432677,"score_gpt":0.2705352705392646,"score_spread":0.2632658574728319,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}