{"id":"W4291903984","doi":"10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6","title":"Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature Sustainability","topic":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":43,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia; McGill University","funders":"Agencia Estatal de Investigación; Chinese Universities Scientific Fund; Natural Environment Research Council; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; Eusko Jaurlaritza; European Regional Development Fund; European Commission; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Aalto-Yliopisto; Sight Research UK; Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851; Australian Government; Academy of Finland; Open Philanthropy Project; National Aeronautics and Space Administration","keywords":"Earth system science; Biosphere; Sustainability; Environmental resource management; Earth science; Production (economics); Food systems; Environmental science; Biogeochemical cycle; Earth observation; Expert elicitation; Computer science; Ecology; Food security; Engineering; Geography; Geology; Biology; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001147243,0.0001534947,0.000164643,0.00008285324,0.001431884,0.00004933888,0.0002579425,0.00009067081,0.0001348833],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005582813,0.0001474077,0.0001139432,0.0005887364,0.00007283527,0.0004415783,0.0002855124,0.0004873999,0.000004249905],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002980801,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007452234,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004242946,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000481389,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980611,0.0002015156,0.0002885437,0.0006077862,0.0003879372,0.0004531057],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999041,0.000106533,0.0001542808,0.0004226752,0.0002029027,0.00007264139],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00192765,0.003377161,0.08573088,0.00819013,0.0002385456,0.0001127841,0.02450643,0.5920886,0.02000821,0.1989837,0.01274144,0.05209444],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001512039,0.001805218,0.03438037,0.00005576052,0.00008400038,0.0002430825,0.2964052,0.2717753,0.004348078,0.02073798,0.3670806,0.001572359],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9846686,0.0002029277,0.007383234,0.00169813,0.001062786,0.002980383,0.00001434069,0.0001814422,0.001808209],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9967341,0.000001159157,0.0004584827,0.00006145181,0.00008580001,0.0008668614,0.00002412926,0.00001958264,0.001748378],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3543392,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998681,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.007269413066432677,"score_gpt":0.2705352705392646,"score_spread":0.2632658574728319,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}