{"id":"W4292068976","doi":"10.3390/forecast4030039","title":"Nowcasting GDP: An Application to Portugal","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Forecasting","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia","keywords":"Nowcasting; Quarter (Canadian coin); Bridge (graph theory); Econometrics; Computer science; Real gross domestic product; Business cycle; Economics; Macroeconomics; Economy; Geography; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007661029,0.0001162827,0.0002154058,0.0002059203,0.0004434466,0.00004758941,0.0002434391,0.00002721148,0.00111596],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00008572718,0.0001639108,0.00006134262,0.0002081919,0.00001038355,0.0002443243,0.0001507065,0.0001627311,0.0004782501],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000153873,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000009128992,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001010327,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003755653,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987093,0.00001299179,0.000478436,0.0003994076,0.00002882834,0.000371005],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992669,0.00003155473,0.0002569864,0.0002871667,0.000005145137,0.0001523],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001128305,0.0002727221,0.2175591,0.00004876425,0.00008373253,0.00002236235,0.007326163,0.6008208,0.0002840292,0.07267904,0.006656346,0.09413411],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003248329,0.0002835178,0.01187439,0.000004012898,0.000004043218,0.00007699583,0.0003488803,0.8691365,0.00003689138,0.01030158,0.1071722,0.0004361658],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9618301,0.00007504909,0.01260346,0.0003730749,0.0003278193,0.0002444756,0.0002673286,0.00006929239,0.02420938],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9951911,7.328119e-7,0.002706037,0.0008167521,0.0003277789,0.00009853519,0.00007112947,0.00002963968,0.0007583042],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2683157,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997972,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1361182833545793,"score_gpt":0.2387683145645577,"score_spread":0.1026500312099783,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}