{"id":"W4292068976","doi":"10.3390/forecast4030039","title":"Nowcasting GDP: An Application to Portugal","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Forecasting","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia","keywords":"Nowcasting; Quarter (Canadian coin); Bridge (graph theory); Econometrics; Computer science; Real gross domestic product; Business cycle; Economics; Macroeconomics; Economy; Geography; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001978304,0.000516753,0.0004981155,0.001168782,0.000582534,0.001338902,0.0006469967,0.001068311,0.003010912],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009379506,0.00016129,0.0006049584,0.002419302,0.000341926,0.0007391266,0.0008219829,0.0009299846,0.0005375246],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001102141,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000818699,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06136264,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04592032,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996542,0.0001501151,0.00002844092,0.00005223164,0.00008004411,0.00003492729],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975304,0.00170462,0.0001547816,0.0002438024,0.0002743186,0.00009198324],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007347819,0.0003579414,0.04052855,0.0006579423,0.0001495691,0.002962209,0.001259522,0.6700428,0.001914916,0.02807612,0.02363083,0.2296848],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000104576,0.00004824764,0.0176507,0.0000869006,0.00002234701,0.0002095822,0.0004447778,0.9523344,0.001542154,0.01412543,0.01339353,0.00003734619],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7282773,0.00325825,0.1699775,0.007536353,0.001177881,0.0002245366,0.01088182,0.006993598,0.07167289],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9385916,0.001012333,0.05237088,0.0001586002,0.0001611311,0.00004858836,0.002211423,0.0004544863,0.004991008],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06136264,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1220109,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1361182833545793,"score_gpt":0.2387683145645577,"score_spread":0.1026500312099783,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}