{"id":"W4293194793","doi":"10.1111/hith.12269","title":"PREDICTIONS WITHOUT FUTURES*","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"History and Theory","topic":"Media, Religion, Digital Communication","field":"Arts and Humanities","cited_by":25,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Futures contract; Ideology; Modernity; Epistemology; Sociology; Horizon; Aesthetics; Closure (psychology); Banner; Normative; Futures studies; Environmental ethics; Politics; Philosophy; Positive economics; Law; Political science; Economics; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004132847,0.0004745018,0.0002762759,0.0008224612,0.001994781,0.006869949,0.001092704,0.001834311,0.01295824],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0135685,0.0002646173,0.0003813604,0.0006455893,0.01677573,0.01182224,0.003271296,0.003430696,0.001671956],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003182984,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002179259,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00276312,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002524348,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979559,0.0009420567,0.00006616989,0.0003907609,0.0004976462,0.0001474177],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9936646,0.003431166,0.0005294671,0.001415654,0.0006952437,0.0002639356],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001435693,0.000006800517,0.0002433222,0.00002136767,0.000003301982,0.00004588969,0.001358481,0.001083404,0.0001000002,0.9895438,0.001820707,0.005758582],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004936368,0.00001408732,0.0001720774,0.00007153298,0.000004482715,0.00004260132,0.0008845853,0.002701778,0.000414232,0.954144,0.04153151,0.00001411806],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.05841064,0.002986524,0.1597059,0.05869643,0.001819006,0.00008627078,0.0005595107,0.0006022582,0.7171333],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.972021,0.0009584296,0.009383238,0.001175501,0.0002094353,0.00004159857,0.0001320833,0.00009967479,0.01597914],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01295824,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04334968,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02775569101585432,"score_gpt":0.1988000723362197,"score_spread":0.1710443813203654,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}