{"id":"W4293216870","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.004","title":"Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 in early 2020","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Data Science and Management","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital; University of Toronto","funders":"Program of Shanghai Academic Research Leader; Horizon 2020; National Natural Science Foundation of China; National Major Science and Technology Projects of China; University of Southampton; Department for International Development; Baidu; Wellcome Trust; National Institutes of Health; Department for International Development, UK Government; European Commission; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","keywords":"Preparedness; Pandemic; Outbreak; Megacity; Public health; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Geography; Transmission (telecommunications); China; Demography; Population; Environmental health; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Disease; Medicine; Political science; Virology; Telecommunications; Engineering; Economics; Economy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005147641,0.0004010048,0.0003475581,0.00163903,0.0003941442,0.001204004,0.0007048213,0.0005909123,0.0008804414],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01195035,0.0002688968,0.0006109952,0.001238328,0.0002612192,0.001653621,0.001266783,0.0008042832,0.0002106265],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008194938,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008812241,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01445485,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01375195,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985819,0.0005567623,0.0001504883,0.0002461601,0.0002921462,0.0001726649],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9943022,0.002113481,0.001712204,0.0003731984,0.001111556,0.0003874174],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001042463,0.00003465944,0.9872239,0.00007373627,0.0002090204,0.0001828642,0.0003379234,0.003452349,0.0003025982,0.0009726011,0.0003530776,0.006753128],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009324043,0.0003184905,0.9574127,0.0001912953,0.0002104973,0.0005097867,0.001637628,0.03179623,0.0008216489,0.002505988,0.004549941,0.0000366164],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9893262,0.001053879,0.004598626,0.0003514455,0.00001815827,0.0000604146,0.002536547,0.00001663545,0.002038114],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9951612,0.0004926224,0.001588055,0.00006436036,0.00001342545,0.00003843367,0.002359398,0.000003194568,0.000279258],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01445485,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02874142,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3848828241772553,"score_gpt":0.4832974312217148,"score_spread":0.09841460704445948,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}