{"id":"W4293216870","doi":"10.1016/j.dsm.2022.08.004","title":"Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 in early 2020","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Data Science and Management","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital; University of Toronto","funders":"Program of Shanghai Academic Research Leader; Horizon 2020; National Natural Science Foundation of China; National Major Science and Technology Projects of China; University of Southampton; Department for International Development; Baidu; Wellcome Trust; National Institutes of Health; Department for International Development, UK Government; European Commission; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","keywords":"Preparedness; Pandemic; Outbreak; Megacity; Public health; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Geography; Transmission (telecommunications); China; Demography; Population; Environmental health; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Disease; Medicine; Political science; Virology; Telecommunications; Engineering; Economics; Economy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006887027,0.00007010121,0.0001726116,0.0001099583,0.0003954943,0.00005005004,0.0009051471,0.000008295634,0.00004376381],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004491467,0.00005674819,0.00001163054,0.0007489993,0.0003090707,0.0004381383,0.005420301,0.00009619904,0.000001778819],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001529129,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000590998,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000990188,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001314516,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984901,0.0001305746,0.0002403145,0.0004558183,0.0004719768,0.0002112323],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984881,0.0006797945,0.0001434535,0.0006062115,0.00001616955,0.0000662821],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007023178,0.0008281028,0.4474147,0.001414624,0.000140423,0.0002985795,0.004015636,0.0008252555,0.0002412249,0.3015997,0.17326,0.0698915],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001039545,0.0001910755,0.4666182,0.00004431845,0.0001334375,0.000004272491,0.00934924,0.009346693,0.00001342801,0.1749766,0.3378739,0.0004092312],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9650269,0.0004350778,0.01754543,0.009007025,0.0002327062,0.001182984,0.0004273225,0.00009313998,0.006049489],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9864516,0.0007285825,0.01102194,0.001658556,0.00001294346,0.00004878793,0.00001360051,0.000004095727,0.00005994141],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1646139,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6756017,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3848828241772553,"score_gpt":0.4832974312217148,"score_spread":0.09841460704445948,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}