{"id":"W4293794885","doi":"10.1080/10920277.2022.2100425","title":"Ensemble Economic Scenario Generators: Unity Makes Strength","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"North American Actuarial Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Computer science; Econometrics; Sample (material); Bayesian probability; Ensemble forecasting; Economic model; Perspective (graphical); Bayesian inference; Economics; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003783683,0.0007763259,0.001174158,0.001224222,0.0005494907,0.001531233,0.001366859,0.0008181464,0.003003803],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01873374,0.0006156493,0.0007798314,0.00104939,0.0005107031,0.003591049,0.002012378,0.001717152,0.0007331329],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005548495,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007880331,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003200659,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004711269,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989361,0.0005019949,0.00004690624,0.0001954127,0.0002478398,0.00007177028],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9929587,0.004266494,0.0005011081,0.00119469,0.0008590598,0.0002200472],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001456744,0.00006512924,0.007896973,0.00005603333,0.0001992793,0.0001125734,0.0001489479,0.8443026,0.0006838087,0.02933564,0.003323243,0.1137302],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001017019,0.00002605148,0.0008014223,0.00001810852,0.0000233121,0.00003306052,0.00002374067,0.9718493,0.0003063662,0.02528526,0.00160875,0.00001446554],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1476899,0.0006527968,0.8377,0.001088117,0.0001583039,0.0001384482,0.0009239025,0.00125017,0.01039834],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8722292,0.0003475599,0.1242208,0.0001993671,0.0001237608,0.0001281908,0.001142074,0.0001913348,0.001417789],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.003783683,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02001029,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04194995841847415,"score_gpt":0.2192080840466044,"score_spread":0.1772581256281302,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}