{"id":"W4295359159","doi":"10.1029/2022ef002907","title":"Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Earth s Future","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":39,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"Institute for Basic Science; Natural Environment Research Council; Sight Research UK","keywords":"Climate change; Environmental science; Global warming; Recreation; Northern Hemisphere; Latitude; Cryosphere; Physical geography; Sea ice; Climatology; Geography; Oceanography; Ecology; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003623497,0.0003751187,0.000337735,0.0001694061,0.000528292,0.00120612,0.0004336869,0.0005169523,0.002844037],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008557857,0.0001909662,0.0007261058,0.0003897369,0.0003360432,0.001031409,0.0004676449,0.0006227811,0.0002898584],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001626985,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001396948,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.07835267,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07302185,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998757,0.00002910755,0.000006111391,0.0000267332,0.00002142618,0.00004095516],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997788,0.00002248814,0.00006664282,0.00001792398,0.00005578378,0.00005840523],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003310891,0.0001173729,0.3382425,0.0001226341,0.000410319,0.0002664535,0.000197101,0.6295168,0.006209127,0.00311126,0.01070269,0.01077258],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002110645,0.0002019889,0.3739341,0.00006329225,0.0002224469,0.0001322615,0.001002794,0.6001186,0.002136389,0.005428751,0.01645911,0.00008914179],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9806739,0.0002449066,0.003617471,0.002087449,0.0001184205,0.00001876161,0.004801149,0.0001639759,0.008274033],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.996251,0.0001671866,0.000919806,0.0001967322,0.000031964,0.00002219115,0.001721148,0.00003445092,0.0006555642],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.07835267,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1557932,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01090552842228523,"score_gpt":0.2052794268230584,"score_spread":0.1943738984007732,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}