{"id":"W4297055694","doi":"10.1029/2022jd036992","title":"Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter‐Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":55,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"European Commission; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Sight Research UK; Natural Environment Research Council; U.S. Department of Energy; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Polar vortex; Climatology; Stratosphere; Northern Hemisphere; Environmental science; Sudden stratospheric warming; Atmospheric sciences; Vortex; Climate change; Magnitude (astronomy); Climate model; Coupled model intercomparison project; Troposphere; Precipitation; Geology; Meteorology; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002293503,0.0002240871,0.0004240455,0.00001568155,0.0003611566,0.0000944216,0.0003422388,0.00009459168,0.001287261],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001952533,0.0002070642,0.0001544892,0.0005765903,0.0003789187,0.0009056174,0.0009443283,0.001455897,0.00002658316],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001007257,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00015809,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01225706,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01236494,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9960502,0.0007468848,0.0005520476,0.0004599931,0.001526537,0.000664378],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985878,0.0004237078,0.0002162528,0.0003410463,0.0001162065,0.0003149852],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001130465,0.002020615,0.1571244,0.00009712106,0.00006847802,0.0003921475,0.004917998,0.7472253,0.02024018,0.001917799,0.0005971288,0.06426828],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009038882,0.0005262537,0.04212802,0.0000674516,0.00001571499,0.00006452719,0.001392599,0.9118071,0.0001081734,0.0425096,0.0002141765,0.0002625575],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9955325,0.0001847421,0.001056137,0.0007674565,0.00005571559,0.0003819556,0.00001679198,0.00001440747,0.001990355],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9982765,0.00008281267,0.001217351,0.0001052743,0.0001042087,0.00003208248,0.000003134908,0.00003199567,0.0001466955],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1645817,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996257,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06115644501548135,"score_gpt":0.3127269197758628,"score_spread":0.2515704747603814,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}