{"id":"W4297055694","doi":"10.1029/2022jd036992","title":"Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter‐Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":55,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"European Commission; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Sight Research UK; Natural Environment Research Council; U.S. Department of Energy; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Polar vortex; Climatology; Stratosphere; Northern Hemisphere; Environmental science; Sudden stratospheric warming; Atmospheric sciences; Vortex; Climate change; Magnitude (astronomy); Climate model; Coupled model intercomparison project; Troposphere; Precipitation; Geology; Meteorology; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008326879,0.001258605,0.0006957024,0.0008692577,0.0005602004,0.001288554,0.001138717,0.001317226,0.001559835],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01068277,0.0006007499,0.001921441,0.0009602834,0.0006455477,0.001254383,0.001067142,0.001406026,0.0002079287],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001020371,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004003284,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02104242,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007942968,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982812,0.001185339,0.00007169614,0.000257185,0.0001168514,0.00008775436],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9920961,0.006230917,0.0004530299,0.0006112108,0.0004223114,0.0001863234],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003884252,0.00006699015,0.04319711,0.0000646855,0.001132349,0.00009084423,0.00004163958,0.9504511,0.0009066554,0.0005161225,0.0009781012,0.002165993],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001362075,0.0002662221,0.04254804,0.0000387388,0.0003813273,0.00006367121,0.00008245492,0.9517887,0.0024036,0.001399669,0.000814019,0.00007727397],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.991035,0.0005215675,0.002422524,0.0005281075,0.00004450361,0.00004648511,0.002846017,0.0001747627,0.002380871],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9974086,0.00008142822,0.0008030981,0.00007399778,0.00001514976,0.00003360565,0.001343391,0.00003337607,0.0002074003],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02104242,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04403722,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06115644501548135,"score_gpt":0.3127269197758628,"score_spread":0.2515704747603814,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}