{"id":"W4299933721","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.655230","title":"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":52,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal; Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations; Université du Québec à Montréal; HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Output gap; Bivariate analysis; Inflation (cosmology); Univariate; Econometrics; Economics; Phillips curve; Multivariate statistics; Monetary policy; Potential output; Reliability (semiconductor); Macroeconomics; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002681999,0.0001168063,0.000249455,0.0001702472,0.0001238414,0.00003461346,0.000196161,0.00007285469,0.0000332427],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002346887,0.0001005535,0.000111899,0.0001092162,0.00005285395,0.0001916241,0.00001215337,0.0005869656,0.0001420835],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001111032,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002792781,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009997803,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004405917,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981542,0.00002042594,0.0006392561,0.0001709285,0.00003408222,0.0009811538],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991887,0.0001317761,0.0003953974,0.0002263283,0.00001115639,0.00004669376],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000413907,0.0001701408,0.1070614,0.00001347293,0.00006717081,0.00000144887,0.000310927,0.5552918,0.00002169004,0.3298431,0.00006383684,0.006741196],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001222388,0.0004113875,0.05405034,0.00001839114,0.000003928859,0.0000128864,0.00002897159,0.0881134,0.00005571786,0.8556868,0.000261531,0.0001341983],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9909927,0.0003037549,0.001059548,0.001421086,0.00009458618,0.0001260958,0.00001286786,0.000009446392,0.005979965],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9988005,0.0006831056,0.0001496705,0.00005280319,0.00007510511,0.00000349454,0.000004315511,0.00001319179,0.0002178383],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5258437,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4100452,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03078080048007638,"score_gpt":0.2302854303131477,"score_spread":0.1995046298330713,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}