{"id":"W4306648520","doi":"10.3386/w30569","title":"The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":127,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"California Center for Population Research, University of California, Los Angeles; Northwestern University; California Department of Public Health","keywords":"Demography; Fertility; Pandemic; Microdata (statistics); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Quarter (Canadian coin); Birth rate; Geography; Medicine; Population; Census; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Sociology; Disease","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","sts","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["metaresearch"],"category_scores_codex":[0.08117112,0.0001775893,0.0003330109,0.0008405219,0.001586742,0.0002313411,0.002314084,0.0002350129,0.001076589],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0247084,0.0001037719,0.0001533618,0.001546002,0.001157519,0.00009708493,0.0005243958,0.001449203,0.00002380819],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003327101,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0199863,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.163188,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.5385191,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9870228,0.008030659,0.0008629232,0.000615122,0.002807013,0.0006614986],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9792576,0.01921663,0.0002506676,0.0005210536,0.0005604816,0.000193605],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.006653051,0.0004101315,0.3980168,0.00008851944,0.0003539701,0.00002750392,0.03666998,0.002806724,0.00003183507,0.1401578,0.3975699,0.01721371],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003212392,0.00005497768,0.2253808,0.0000162931,0.000004995744,0.000002479082,0.009158231,0.00004562141,7.47164e-7,0.1424699,0.622399,0.0001457145],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4451765,0.006952065,0.00000107688,0.1893241,0.001171983,0.003443218,0.0005295333,0.000052475,0.353349],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9872728,0.003377639,0.00000364924,0.0002370054,0.0002144534,0.0007127696,0.00007987995,0.00001388354,0.008087909],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5420963,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998366,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4549731506357597,"score_gpt":0.5604069117590025,"score_spread":0.1054337611232428,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}