{"id":"W4306876896","doi":"10.1007/978-3-031-19958-5_111","title":"Analysis and Forecasting of Final Household Expenditure in South Africa Using Box-Jenkins – ARIMA Model","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"Lecture notes in networks and systems","topic":"Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies","field":"Energy","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Box–Jenkins; Quarter (Canadian coin); Recession; Economics; Econometrics; Autoregressive model; Time series; Geography; Statistics; Macroeconomics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003435449,0.0004307436,0.0004342965,0.0004436169,0.0002585713,0.0005517945,0.0004121321,0.0004676879,0.001417569],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0009246235,0.0002750627,0.0005723423,0.0008620766,0.0001533853,0.0005373941,0.0002194222,0.0005236706,0.0002098527],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001066418,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006378161,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1387484,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0714644,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999151,0.00002518613,0.000006237881,0.00001777024,0.000009149097,0.00002648053],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997724,0.000120972,0.00002887549,0.0000110588,0.00005388359,0.00001286446],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003544647,0.00008892426,0.05365832,0.0001434061,0.0001491353,0.000644773,0.0003096448,0.9192026,0.002159207,0.003995183,0.00199364,0.01730072],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001262282,0.00003690603,0.03779288,0.00002092274,0.00003972067,0.0000282284,0.0002808641,0.9596124,0.0008049606,0.0005235159,0.0008305682,0.00001634613],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9899211,0.0002593035,0.006634917,0.0002700661,0.00002458413,0.00001599574,0.001371075,0.00006367475,0.001439282],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9960919,0.0001750937,0.001858522,0.000006328468,0.000006622135,0.00001374612,0.0006788935,0.000008809609,0.001159993],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1387484,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2758816,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05335316945698724,"score_gpt":0.2233535337324556,"score_spread":0.1700003642754684,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}