{"id":"W4307139954","doi":"10.1029/2022gl100835","title":"The Role of Wave Breaking in the Development and Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 Great Plains Cold Air Outbreak","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; Anticyclone; Environmental science; Cold wave; Range (aeronautics); Meteorology; Forecast skill; Outbreak; Extreme Cold; Event (particle physics); Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005739702,0.0003297932,0.0002020327,0.0003465249,0.0003211434,0.001043802,0.0002960223,0.0005316201,0.0009416559],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002236932,0.0001876172,0.0002883364,0.0002674239,0.0002030354,0.0004951549,0.0004071211,0.000601246,0.0001156551],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007257886,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006656941,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.08975815,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06542521,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999007,0.00002914292,0.000007694553,0.0000233076,0.00001805478,0.0000210827],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994614,0.0001895174,0.0001040061,0.00004466134,0.00009621886,0.0001041486],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002625994,0.0001532119,0.4162216,0.00001895824,0.0001379336,0.0002101138,0.0001097864,0.5656404,0.00346451,0.0006702489,0.001970771,0.0111398],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004480016,0.00004821386,0.1536393,0.000009264382,0.00002828835,0.00001530104,0.0001265005,0.8446914,0.000643556,0.0002808771,0.0004564126,0.00001607603],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9978715,0.00003862002,0.0004321381,0.0002110202,0.00001905984,0.000007677269,0.0002595924,0.00005081287,0.001109565],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994399,0.00001746272,0.0001942702,0.00001043485,0.000008719209,0.000002792496,0.0002238653,0.000005285231,0.00009724054],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08975815,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1784714,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0323535433438504,"score_gpt":0.2643471321377108,"score_spread":0.2319935887938604,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}