{"id":"W4308612022","doi":"10.1002/jae.2948","title":"Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"Sveriges Riksbanken","keywords":"Central bank; Forward guidance; Official cash rate; Quantitative easing; Bank rate; Data bank; Construct (python library); Economics; Econometrics; Monetary policy; Computer science; Macroeconomics; Inflation targeting; Telecommunications","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001356735,0.0001486694,0.0005150223,0.001249653,0.000290863,0.0000820319,0.0002593159,0.00004950242,0.0006892959],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000672847,0.0001778473,0.0001290975,0.0005802795,0.00004000766,0.0006360633,0.00009387932,0.0002934067,0.00003163384],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003422905,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000203355,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001100297,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":4.638711e-7,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982933,0.00001435563,0.001162893,0.0002309089,0.00005352719,0.0002450623],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9980139,0.00008262371,0.001582036,0.0001718755,0.00001803419,0.0001314907],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00119764,0.00110504,0.03245098,0.0003662491,0.001091344,0.00002236747,0.1091169,0.2592267,0.00006906746,0.5307977,0.04852518,0.01603094],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0125161,0.002682809,0.05334231,0.00002013584,0.0001051782,0.001342512,0.06820679,0.1988663,0.0003733794,0.3125295,0.3473941,0.002620843],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8963472,0.002921418,0.01700755,0.0004394096,0.000456401,0.0002837378,0.0001253553,0.00001509655,0.0824038],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9936959,0.0001777746,0.005314884,0.0003949245,0.0001775892,0.00003086057,0.00001258613,0.00001863316,0.0001768447],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.298869,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7547307,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09621843158878739,"score_gpt":0.218366609150761,"score_spread":0.1221481775619736,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}