{"id":"W4308772231","doi":"10.1093/jtm/taac134","title":"Shifts in global mobility dictate the synchrony of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Travel Medicine","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BlueDot (Canada); University of Toronto","funders":"Fogarty International Center; National Institutes of Health; Medical Research Council; South African Medical Research Council; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; European Commission; Department of Science and Innovation, South Africa; Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; World Bank Group; Rockefeller Foundation","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Pandemic; Air travel; Demography; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Global health; Medicine; Travel time; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Aviation; Public health; Virology; Outbreak","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005363518,0.0002269213,0.0002462418,0.0007566434,0.0002305162,0.0008018886,0.0001851722,0.0002596606,0.002043963],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003877722,0.0001776274,0.0003974254,0.0009302021,0.0003755723,0.0008113655,0.0006574168,0.0003006817,0.0003937133],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003225755,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003579031,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003498673,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003583575,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997316,0.00004899261,0.00002500051,0.00007996515,0.00003879258,0.00007556927],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983215,0.0003912028,0.0008195627,0.0001265559,0.0001922286,0.0001489662],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000192983,0.00002612708,0.983027,0.00004391114,0.00009439866,0.00009203488,0.0001829121,0.005192981,0.004634797,0.0005746369,0.0003747637,0.005563401],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004639523,0.00005404822,0.9938678,0.00001120134,0.00003200443,0.00007397562,0.0004274928,0.00407963,0.000540731,0.0004052131,0.0004961724,0.000007118723],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9966812,0.0001516193,0.001249089,0.0000667549,0.000008684351,0.00001249846,0.000371907,0.00001307899,0.001445209],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991745,0.00007859816,0.0003050306,0.00001288421,0.000007091605,0.000008407823,0.0003249844,0.000003887877,0.00008451229],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003498673,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.006956637,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2394292137703034,"score_gpt":0.4476840767556241,"score_spread":0.2082548629853208,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}