{"id":"W4308772231","doi":"10.1093/jtm/taac134","title":"Shifts in global mobility dictate the synchrony of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Travel Medicine","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"BlueDot (Canada); University of Toronto","funders":"Fogarty International Center; National Institutes of Health; Medical Research Council; South African Medical Research Council; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; European Commission; Department of Science and Innovation, South Africa; Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; World Bank Group; Rockefeller Foundation","keywords":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Pandemic; Air travel; Demography; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Global health; Medicine; Travel time; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Aviation; Public health; Virology; Outbreak","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008391067,0.0001834144,0.001124877,0.00008449543,0.0001117969,0.000002232699,0.0005761714,0.00005038334,0.0001059842],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01569373,0.00009544963,0.0002042647,0.0004355285,0.0004384291,0.00004954963,0.0002317945,0.0006862616,8.928737e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004668479,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000100759,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003504191,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001223466,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9962811,0.0008264261,0.001723094,0.0001761072,0.0006980845,0.0002951295],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9924952,0.005897523,0.001134365,0.0002959084,0.0001176327,0.00005936359],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003869538,0.004740104,0.6094676,0.002320498,0.002164443,0.001268262,0.02636212,0.001773845,0.03722856,0.06500766,0.2024926,0.04330474],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002459115,0.001633744,0.5711058,0.0003538147,0.0002275034,0.0001453396,0.002846072,0.0008080587,0.000260975,0.417942,0.002046906,0.0001706173],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9649741,0.002559341,0.002025239,0.02912842,0.0003850411,0.0002767744,0.00001964588,0.000009253404,0.0006221656],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.996767,0.0002287754,0.0008165158,0.001970761,0.0001834161,0.00001013884,4.678986e-7,0.000008533411,0.00001438752],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3529344,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9925975,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2394292137703034,"score_gpt":0.4476840767556241,"score_spread":0.2082548629853208,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}