{"id":"W4309558893","doi":"10.1111/rssa.12955","title":"Estimation of Reproduction Numbers in Real Time: Conceptual and Statistical Challenges","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":30,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; Economic and Social Research Council; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; Chief Scientist Office, Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate; Defence Science and Technology Laboratory; Medical Research Council Canada; Public Health England; Public Health Agency; National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit; University of Warwick; Royal Society; Department of Health and Social Care; Defence Science and Technology Group; Alan Turing Institute; Health and Social Care Research and Development Division; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Scottish Government; British Heart Foundation; Wellcome Trust; Medical Research Council; Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung","keywords":"Computer science; Intuition; Data science; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Metric (unit); Pandemic; Operations research; Aggregate data; Econometrics; Economics; Statistics; Mathematics; Operations management; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003445431,0.0002722185,0.0009282743,0.0000302308,0.0003127519,0.0000224673,0.0003383715,0.000137024,0.0002549443],"category_scores_gemma":[0.008234894,0.0002130779,0.0002160459,0.0003342539,0.001410677,0.0001016857,0.0005217955,0.001037175,9.109495e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006892956,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001815691,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002041921,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006789271,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9959648,0.0008143828,0.001523712,0.0003951345,0.0008774692,0.0004245554],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.990432,0.008088573,0.0009273164,0.0002693791,0.000171757,0.0001109483],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005629269,0.0008991964,0.00767086,0.0008969211,0.0004187379,0.00006070992,0.01861013,0.02144632,0.00006087124,0.8271788,0.1046604,0.01753414],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002138477,0.001110561,0.06015883,0.0001451293,0.0002596611,0.00006438094,0.0188164,0.07321166,0.00002091604,0.8406096,0.002962575,0.0005018259],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.4002449,0.004743578,0.5687536,0.01570381,0.001915561,0.002382449,0.004963983,0.0001278486,0.001164301],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.4933614,0.002456152,0.5033724,0.000227198,0.0001488006,0.00004386397,0.00002149365,0.00004894098,0.0003197739],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1016979,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9858532,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09792103860554488,"score_gpt":0.3745656238347784,"score_spread":0.2766445852292335,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}