{"id":"W4309622902","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ac98d9","title":"Tracking a blue wave of ephemeral water across arid southern Africa","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Environmental Research Letters","topic":"Flood Risk Assessment and Management","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"Duke University; World Wildlife Fund","keywords":"Ephemeral key; Arid; Hydrology (agriculture); Surface water; Environmental science; Climate change; Wet season; Water resources; Dry season; Soil water; Range (aeronautics); Population; Geography; Ecology; Physical geography; Geology; Biology; Soil science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001490691,0.0001784565,0.0001706852,0.00007318316,0.0007600006,0.00004453011,0.0005407405,0.0000279143,0.01840863],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000007567817,0.0001514258,0.0001197024,0.000180085,0.0006310395,0.0001944414,0.002725682,0.0005314128,0.0008200986],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006857946,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000003705053,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004309061,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004284115,"domain_scores_codex":[0.995976,0.0003473605,0.0002814688,0.0005101439,0.001878291,0.001006726],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993327,0.00005752425,0.0000554648,0.000424551,0.000001317838,0.0001284144],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001413684,0.0008626568,0.02181075,0.0000153424,0.00007748501,0.0001805774,0.02229976,0.01050583,0.9130538,0.00001510356,0.01689036,0.01414705],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004063861,0.001655309,0.07452702,0.00002349145,0.00006252839,0.00003574568,0.06123748,0.003807862,0.199335,0.0007468828,0.6528928,0.001612023],"study_design_candidate":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9960554,0.00004622902,0.000137841,0.001711565,0.00009349431,0.0004583097,0.00006769162,0.00002241677,0.001407036],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9962958,0.00001944642,0.0003142098,0.0003114047,0.00003991747,0.0001646418,0.00004466715,0.00003636178,0.002773521],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7137187,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999579,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03917889607876347,"score_gpt":0.2903603299411812,"score_spread":0.2511814338624178,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}