{"id":"W4310399239","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20210485","title":"Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Review Insights","topic":"Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Alberta","funders":"","keywords":"Fertility; Surprise; Economics; Politics; Presidential system; Democracy; Demographic economics; General election; Total fertility rate; Presidential election; Power (physics); Political economy; Development economics; Political science; Sociology; Family planning; Demography; Population; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003387532,0.00009604863,0.0002779649,0.00004003533,0.0009277256,0.00004784636,0.0001992356,0.00001344179,0.0005000471],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003497639,0.0001023881,0.0000733252,0.0001943661,0.0003889981,0.0001400108,0.00009053932,0.0001290656,0.00003945247],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002295478,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002411449,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006158707,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003626871,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986776,0.0004245323,0.0002688188,0.0002905296,0.0001079853,0.0002305949],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994068,0.00006309204,0.0001697361,0.0002186158,0.0000175898,0.0001241589],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007142963,0.0005415253,0.5191202,0.0005795037,0.000482382,0.00002659112,0.04429989,0.0003867396,0.0001419993,0.1932837,0.05970744,0.1813586],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001082775,0.00008067,0.2124879,0.00002093381,0.00005732786,0.000002714107,0.003558868,0.0001364106,0.000001567171,0.002071748,0.7812454,0.0002282809],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9588315,0.01870359,0.00004248819,0.0009933629,0.0004268602,0.0004295217,0.00001736873,0.00006314705,0.02049209],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9623809,0.03542627,0.00006096406,0.001363897,0.00007511038,0.0001082281,0.000008959722,0.000009490972,0.0005661782],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7215379,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9310163,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02000459938045719,"score_gpt":0.2924093059582638,"score_spread":0.2724047065778066,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}